Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 22

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Den Dreef (Heverlee)

Referee: Allaerts M. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DAZN
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
Bolivia	DAZN
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
Ecuador	DAZN
France	DAZN France
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	DAZN
Paraguay	DAZN
Portugal	DAZN / App
Spain	DAZN Espana
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA
Venezuela	DAZN


	Oud-Heverlee Leuven		Saint-Gilloise

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.95	Watch
	3.65	3.4	2.02	Watch
	4.08	3.47	2.08
	3.69	3.45	2.03
	3.75	3.2	1.95
	4.15	3.53	1.98	Watch
	3.8	3.33	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.85 ↓ (4.63)	3.4 ↓ (3.64)	2 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
24.7%

Draw
27.9%

Saint-Gilloise
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

25.7%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.8%

25.1%

55.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oud-Heverlee Leuven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Saint-Gilloise has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Saint-Gilloise might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Saint-Gilloise than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Saint-Gilloise could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Oud Heverlee Leuven - Saint Gilloise Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Leuven will win (votes: 6 - 23.1%). Union SG will win (votes: 20 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union SG: 60.7% – 93.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Leuven (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Union SG (votes: 6 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - Union SG (1.35) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Leuven (4.04) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Leuven (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Union SG (votes: 8 - 61.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leysen T. (G) 28. Pletinckx E. 3. Dussenne N. 30. Akimoto T. 27. Gil O. 8. Schrijvers S. (C) 24. Lakomy L. 14. Teklab H. 7. Verlinden T. 10. Maziz Y. 19. Ikwuemesi C.	37. Scherpen K. (G) 27. Patris L. 16. Burgess C. 48. Leysen F. 17. Schoofs R. 6. Van De Perre K. 8. Zorgane A. (C) 11. Guilherme Smith 30. Florucz R. 12. David P. 10. Ait El Hadj A.
Substitutes
6. George W. 61. Jochmans O. (G) 39. Kaba S. 33. Maertens M. 43. McAlinney L. 5. Ominami T. 99. Opoku D. 95. Radelet T. (G) 11. Terho C. 9. Traore A. K. 77. Vlietinck T.	9. Biondic M. 1. Chambaere V. (G) 19. Francois G. 7. Fuseini M. 20. Giger M. 18. Kavlashvili G. (G) . Keita S. 22. Niang O. 14. Pavlic I. 34. Stassin N. 23. Zeneli B.
Coaches
Mazzu F.	Hubert D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Gil O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dussenne N. 🟨,
69', Van De Perre K. 🟨,
71', Florucz R. ↓, Fuseini M. ↑,
72', Ait El Hadj A. ↓, Zeneli B. ↑,
72', Teklab H. ↓, Traore A. K. ↑,
72', Schrijvers S. ↓, George W. ↑,
78', Ikwuemesi C. ↓, Kaba S. ↑,
78', Verlinden T. ↓, Opoku D. ↑,
80', Guilherme Smith ↓, Niang O. ↑,
85', Burgess C. 🟨,
89', Maziz Y. ↓, Maertens M. ↑,
90+5', Kaba S. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leuven won 0.

Leuven has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Union SG is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Leuven may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Leuven has had a series of away games.

In this match, Union SG is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Leuven: Verstraete B. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Union SG: Khalaili A. (Yellow Cards) Mac Allister K. (Yellow Cards) Niang O. (Inactive) Rodriguez K. (Injury) Sykes R. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Leuven: Kayo B. (Knock)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leuven won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:42. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leuven won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:23. (average 1.2:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Royale Union SG	7	6	1	0	21:3	18	19
14	Leuven	7	1	1	5	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
18.01.26	Sint-Truidense - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.01.26	Preußen Münster - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
27.12.25	RAAL La Louvière - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Cercle Brugge	0:2 ✺
12.12.25	Standard Liège - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLTLW
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Bayern Munich - Saint-Gilloise	2:0 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
17.01.26	Saint-Gilloise - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
14.01.26	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.12.25	Cercle Brugge - Saint-Gilloise	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Saint-Gilloise - Zulte Waregem	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
03.08.25	Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5:0
19.01.25	Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:0
24.11.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Saint-Gilloise	1:1
02.03.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Saint-Gilloise	0:2
12.08.23	Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5:1
21.01.23	Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:0
01.10.22	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Saint-Gilloise	0:3

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