Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Championship Group - Round 27

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: OTC Stadion (Oulu) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	19:00	Ruutu+
International	16:00	OneFootball TV


	Oulu		HJK

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.8	1.65
	4.75	3.90	1.65
	4.9	3.6	1.68	Watch
	4.98	3.98	1.73
	4.89	4.07	1.66	Watch
	4.9	3.9	1.69
	4.59	3.88	1.69	Watch
	4.5	3.7	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (3.4)	3.85 ↑ (3.52)	1.67 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oulu
19.7%

Draw
24.3%

HJK
56%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.9%

25.9%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

25.1%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oulu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oulu's form might have worsened.

HJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting HJK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oulu than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oulu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HJK than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for HJK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Oulu - HJK Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. HJK (votes: 1 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - HJK Helsinki (1.75) (votes: 94%) ⭐ Best Value.

Users Predictions: HJK will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (G) 16. Kemppainen O. 5. Pitkanen M. 66. Pirinen J. 22. Kaukua T. 36. Lotvonen J. 25. Arsalo M. 21. Mendolin I. 27. Kallio E. 7. Karjalainen R. (C) 10. Triana C.	1. Ost J. (G) 17. Alho N. 31. Bogicevic M. 6. Tikkanen V. 14. Montano L. 22. Moller L. 4. Ring A. (C) 8. Mentu P. 29. Haarala S. 9. Borchers M. 7. Cicale A.
Substitutes
18. Cassama A. 11. Ghezali L. 14. Jokelainen N. 3. Lietsa A. 30. Makelainen J. 19. Omotayo J. 9. Riski Ro. 99. Schulz N. (G) 2. Sipola S.	32. Gueye M. 11. Kirilov M. 87. Kroupkin N. 24. Levealahti E. 10. Lingman L. 20. Pukki T. 30. Samooja J. (G) 13. Simojoki K. 77. Veteli J.
Coaches
Isokangas M.	Rantanen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Borchers M. ⚽, Montano L. (A),
41', 0 - 2, Moller L. ⚽, Borchers M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 2)
48', 1 - 2, Triana C. ⚽, Kallio E. (A),
53', Kaukua T. 🟨,
55', Lotvonen J. ↓, Ghezali L. ↑,
64', 1 - 3, Borchers M. ⚽, Montano L. (A),
68', Moller L. ↓, Veteli J. ↑,
75', Kemppainen O. ↓, Cassama A. ↑,
75', Triana C. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
75', Arsalo M. ↓, Makelainen J. ↑,
77', 2 - 3, Riski Ro. ⚽, Karjalainen R. (A),
79', Pitkanen M. 🟨,
80', Ghezali L. 🟨,
84', 3 - 3, Pitkanen M. ⚽, Karjalainen R. (A),
86', 3 - 4, Veteli J. ⚽,
89', Haarala S. ↓, Simojoki K. ↑,
89', Mentu P. ↓, Gueye M. ↑,
90+4', Makelainen J. 🟨,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 3rd in the Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: )).

HJK is Qualified for Veikkausliiga (Championship Group ).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oulu won 1.

Oulu is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by HJK have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to HJK for this game.

Confirmed absences for Oulu: Tiihonen O. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for HJK: Cissokho T. (Inactive) Ezeh D. (Broken hipbone) Lappalainen L. (Inactive) Markovic M. (Inactive) Nallo A. (Inactive).

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Oulu has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:30 (averaging 0.8:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Oulu against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 7:11 goals (averaging 1:1.6 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	HJK	30	16	7	7	59:36	23	55
4	AC Oulu	30	13	5	12	36:37	-1	44

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

HJK: 68.22%

Last Results with these Odds

HJK - the odds 1.93 are the expected chance of winning is 47.19%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Oulu
Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.10.26	KuPS Kuopio - Oulu	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Oulu - Inter Turku	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Oulu - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Oulu - SJK	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLLLT
- HJK Helsinki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
08.10.26	HJK - VPS Vaasa	6:0 ✺
18.09.26	Gnistan - HJK	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	0:0 ✺
09.09.26	HJK - Inter Turku	2:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
05.09.26	Inter Turku - HJK	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
09.08.26	Oulu - HJK	0:1
11.04.26	HJK - Oulu	2:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
14.03.26	Oulu - HJK	2:1
Finnish Cup
21.08.25	HJK - Oulu	1:0
Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.25	HJK - Oulu	3:1
14.06.25	Oulu - HJK	0:4
27.07.24	HJK - Oulu	3:0

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