Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Championship Group - Round 25

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Lemonsoft Stadion (Vaasa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	OneFootball TV


	VPS Vaasa		KuPS Kuopio

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	2.05	Watch
	3.75	3.40	1.95
	3.55	3.2	2.08	Watch
	3.64	3.46	2.14
	3.46	3.45	2.11	Watch
	3.55	3.35	2.08
	3.41	3.35	2.09	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.79)	3.34 ↓ (3.4)	2.07 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

VPS Vaasa
26.8%

Draw
28%

KuPS Kuopio
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

27%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

26.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

VPS Vaasa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that VPS Vaasa's form might have worsened.

KuPS Kuopio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VPS Vaasa than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for VPS Vaasa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for KuPS Kuopio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

VPS Vaasa - KuPS Kuopio Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. KuPS will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. KuPS (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Jalloh M. (G) 23. Niemi M. 3. Simpson R. 6. Okereke E. 19. Haukioja M. (C) 24. Daoussi Y. 27. Kouassivi-Benissan K. 2. Mane L. 8. Lima P. 14. Lindholm S. 13. Ogunniyi O.	1. Kreidl J. (G) 6. Savolainen S. 28. Magassa B. 23. Lotjonen A. 25. Antwi C. 10. Gasc V. R. 8. Pennanen P. (C) 21. Luyeye-Lutumba J. 16. Jyry T. 15. Aiki A. 11. Moreno Ciorciari J. J.
Substitutes
21. Adu-Boahen A. 26. Forsbacka R. 9. Holmelund C. 28. Ngobi S. 20. Odhiambo X. 34. Raisanen A. 17. Terrnava D. 30. Vahtera J. 12. Vayrynen L. (G)	4. Adams K. 33. Hamalainen T. 17. Heinonen A. 19. Kabuye C. 13. Kujasalo N. 14. Pasanen S. 29. Puukko A. 12. Riihimaki H. (G) 22. Touray S.
Coaches
Nuorela J.	Nuutinen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
29', 0 - 1, Jyry T. ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Luyeye-Lutumba J. ⚽, Pennanen P. (A),
45', Lima P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Niemi M. 🟨,
60', Aiki A. 🟨,
62', Aiki A. ↓, Adams K. ↑,
62', Pennanen P. ↓, Touray S. ↑,
69', Ogunniyi O. 🟨,
70', Magassa B. ↓, Hamalainen T. ↑,
72', Daoussi Y. ↓, Odhiambo X. ↑,
72', Lima P. ↓, Raisanen A. ↑,
77', Mane L. 🟨,
79', Lindholm S. ↓, Holmelund C. ↑,
79', Niemi M. ↓, Vahtera J. ↑,
90', Jyry T. ↓, Pasanen S. ↑,
90+2', Okereke E. 🟨,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 5th and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, VPS won 1.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with KuPS holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for VPS: Ronnberg V. (Inactive) Turfkruier J. (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for KuPS: Voutilainen J. (Surgery).

Doubtful / questionable for VPS: Muzinga J. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, VPS has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:40 (averaging 0.9:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for VPS against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 4:10 goals (averaging 0.7:1.7 per game).

Outrights of Finnish Veikkausliiga for now

KuPS: 39.56% VPS: 0.49%

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	KuPS	26	13	9	4	41:25	16	48
6	VPS	26	10	6	10	30:31	-1	36

Last Results with these Odds

KuPS Kuopio - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.2%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VPS Vaasa
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.09.26	Inter Turku - VPS Vaasa	1:0 ✺
08.09.26	VPS Vaasa - Oulu	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	VPS Vaasa - Lahti	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	VPS Vaasa - TPS	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLWL
- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
13.09.26	KuPS Kuopio - HJK	0:0 ✺
08.09.26	Gnistan - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Inter Turku - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	KuPS Kuopio - Shamrock Rovers	1:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
23.08.26	KuPS Kuopio - IFK Mariehamn	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
25.07.26	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	3:1
13.06.26	VPS Vaasa - KuPS Kuopio	1:1
Finnish Cup
10.06.26	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	0:1 penalties
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
31.01.26	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	3:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.07.25	VPS Vaasa - KuPS Kuopio	1:1
25.05.25	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	0:2
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
01.02.25	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	2:0

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