Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 30

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Ourense CF		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.8	2.75
	2.58	2.88	2.82
	2.7	2.86	2.85
	2.48	2.77	3.27	Watch
	2.6	2.63	2.75
	2.66	2.91	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.43)	2.81 ↓ (2.82)	2.88 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ourense CF
35.4%

Draw
32.7%

Ponferradina
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

32.4%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

33.2%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Ourense CF - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 4. Carmona F. (C) 14. Perez A. 3. Sanz H. 21. Guerrero A. 24. Moreno C. 18. Rabadan D. 17. Hernandez R. 10. Ochoa M. 9. Sergio Benito	1. Prieto A. (G) 12. Koke 3. Novoa G. 5. Undabarrena E. 19. Lopez A. 10. Valle B. (C) 22. Esquerdo V. 7. Calderon C. 14. Fernandez X. 8. Slavy 18. Vazquez B.
Substitutes
11. Aranzabe A. 7. Bouzaig A. 6. Castillo N. 20. Gueye L. 16. Munoz D. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 15. Rivas L. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 22. Yuste A.	2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 9. Cortes J. 20. Ferrer P. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 11. Petkov S. 15. Sousa V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Moreno C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Moreno C. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
61', Rabadan D. ↓, Munoz D. ↑,
61', Ochoa M. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
62', Slavy ↓, Cortes J. ↑,
62', Fernandez X. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
74', Prieto A. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
76', Guerrero A. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
82', Sergio Benito ↓, Bouzaig A. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+3', Koke ↓, Jorrin M. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 7).

Ourense CF has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ponferradina is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ourense CF may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ourense CF could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ourense CF won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ourense CF won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.03.26	Pontevedra - Ourense CF	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Ourense CF - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Barakaldo - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Ourense CF - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TTLWL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.03.26	Ponferradina - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Cacereño - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
20.02.26	Ponferradina - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
10.01.26	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0
09.03.25	Ponferradina - Ourense CF	2:0
30.11.24	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	2:1
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Ourense CF - Ponferradina	1:1

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