Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 29

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Lugo		Arenas Club de Getxo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.3	4.2
	1.68	3.25	4.6
	1.82	3.2	4.35
	1.84	3.39	4.94
	1.79	3.36	4.67	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.2
	1.82	3.43	4.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.71)	3.29 ↑ (3.22)	4.48 ↓ (4.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
51.6%

Draw
27.9%

Arenas Club de Getxo
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

28.2%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

27.3%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Arenas Club de Getxo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arenas Club de Getxo than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Lugo - Arenas Club de Getxo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (C) 20. Lopez I. 3. Garriz I. 16. Jose Amo 6. Haro P. 5. Gallar A. 8. Balboa A. 12. Perera A. 7. Gonzalez J. 15. Reniero N. 19. Unzueta I.	25. Aragoneses S. (G) 21. Sillero J. (C) 4. Alvarez P. 24. Boriko S. 23. Sustatxa A. 20. Zabaleta E. 16. Verde A. 10. Hidalgo A. 8. Zabala M. 2. Vizcay T. 7. Collado U.
Substitutes
17. Caballo D. 9. Celorio N. 18. Costa G. 24. Gaya J. 23. Junior L. 13. Piedra I. (G) 14. Presa K. 2. Rodriguez Y. 22. Samanes S. 25. Sanchez B. 21. Teofilovic O. 4. Trigueros P.	27. Bazaga O. 3. Fernandez Cozar M. 12. Lartitegi J. 22. Mattheus C. 19. Mutilva C. 13. Pena A. (G) 11. Troncho A. 9. Vazquez A. 15. Viglo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Reniero N. ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Zabala M. ⚽,
42', Collado U. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Zabaleta E. 🟨,
51', 🟨,
55', Zabaleta E. ↓, Fernandez Cozar M. ↑,
56', Collado U. ↓, Troncho A. ↑,
58', Boriko S. 🟨,
64', Perera A. ↓, Presa K. ↑,
64', Gallar A. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
72', Sustatxa A. 🟨,
74', Gonzalez J. ↓, Junior L. ↑,
74', Balboa A. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
80', Sustatxa A. ↓, Mutilva C. ↑,
80', Hidalgo A. ↓, Bazaga O. ↑,
82', Reniero N. ↓, Teofilovic O. ↑,
84', Vizcay T. ↓, Mattheus C. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 13).

Lugo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arenas has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lugo is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lugo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
20	Arenas Getxo	6	0	2	4	4:14	-10	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.03.26	Lugo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Tenerife - Lugo	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Pontevedra - Lugo	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lugo - CD Guadalajara	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LTWTW
- Arenas Club de Getxo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.03.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.10.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Lugo	0:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.11.22	Arenas Club de Getxo - Lugo	1:0

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