Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 27

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Barakaldo		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	1.9	3	4.1
	1.8	3.1	4.1
	1.92	3.1	4.05
	1.97	3.05	4.42
	1.88	3.26	4.31	Watch
	1.91	2.8	4
	1.96	3.1	4.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.76)	3.06 ↓ (3.1)	4.17 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
48.1%

Draw
30%

Ourense CF
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

29.1%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

28%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Ourense CF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barakaldo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Barakaldo - Ourense CF Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Campos G. (G) 7. Pedernales I. 18. Arana M. 3. Garcia B. 16. Lopez O. 8. Huidobro J. (C) 6. Naveira U. 22. Torra M. 14. Munoz I. 9. Valino A. 17. de Leon J.	1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 4. Carmona F. (C) 12. Jelbat A. 3. Sanz H. 11. Aranzabe A. 8. Ramos J. 24. Moreno C. 17. Hernandez R. 16. Munoz D. 10. Ochoa M.
Substitutes
23. Albizua U. 15. Castillo I. 2. de Jesus B. 4. Dufur U. 19. Galarza A. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 21. Pena A. 11. Perez E. 24. Ropero I.	7. Bouzaig A. 21. Guerrero A. 20. Gueye L. 14. Perez A. 5. Prado M. 23. Punzano I. 18. Rabadan D. 15. Rivas L. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Sergio Benito 22. Yuste A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', 🟨,
31', 🟨,
38', 🟨,
38', Naveira U. ↓, Castillo I. ↑,
45+5', Garcia B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Garcia B. ↓, Pena A. ↑,
46', Torra M. ↓, Ropero I. ↑,
54', 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Huidobro J. ⚽,
65', Munoz D. ↓, Guerrero A. ↑,
65', Aranzabe A. ↓, Sergio Benito ↑,
68', 🟨,
68', Lopez O. ↓, de Jesus B. ↑,
74', Munoz I. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Hernandez R. ↓, Bouzaig A. ↑,
76', Moreno C. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
76', Ochoa M. ↓, Yuste A. ↑,
82', Valino A. ↓, Galarza A. ↑,
83', de Leon J. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 15).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Ourense CF may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Barakaldo is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Barakaldo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Barakaldo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Barakaldo	6	1	3	2	6:9	-3	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.03.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Zamora - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Barakaldo - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Cacereño - Barakaldo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWTWT
- Ourense CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
28.02.26	Ourense CF - Arenteiro	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	CD Guadalajara - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Ourense CF - Mérida AD	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ourense CF	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.12.25	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	2:2
19.01.25	Barakaldo - Ourense CF	1:1
29.09.24	Ourense CF - Barakaldo	1:3

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