Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 2

Date: 12 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Simpson J. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5
	1.77	3.6	4.33
	1.75	3.85	4.6
	1.81	3.72	4.67
	1.7	3.4	4.2
	1.77	3.74	4.45	Watch
	1.77	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (2.13)	3.67 ↑ (3.25)	4.42 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
53.1%

Draw
25.6%

Carlisle United
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

28.4%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

28%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carlisle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carlisle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Oxford United - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: Oxford United will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Beadle J. (G) 2. Long S. 5. Moore E. 28. Negru S. 3. Brown C. 10. Bodin B. 8. Brannagan C. 20. Rodrigues R. 6. McEachran J. 11. Browne M. 9. Harris M.	1. Holy T. (G) 5. Lavelle S. 6. Huntington P. (C) 22. Mellish J. 2. Back F. 10. McCalmont A. 8. Guy C. 15. Charters T. 3. Armer J. 9. Edmondson R. 7. Gibson J.
Substitutes
13. Eastwood S. (G) 19. Goodrham T. 18. McGuane M. 7. Mills S. 39. O'Donkor G. 14. Smyth O. 15. Stevens F.	99. Andresson J. (G) 26. Barclay B. 11. Butterworth D. 14. Garner J. 16. Harris J. J. 27. Plange L. 17. Whelan C.
Coaches
Manning L.	Simpson P.

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Oxford could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Oxford is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Oxford won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Cup
09.08.23	Bristol City - Oxford United	5:1 ✺
English League One
05.08.23	Cambridge United - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Oxford United - Queens Park Rangers	5:0 ✺
22.07.23	Bristol City - Oxford United	4:1 ✺
21.07.23	Oxford United - Swansea City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWLW
- Carlisle United
English League Cup
08.08.23	Harrogate Town - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English League One
05.08.23	Carlisle United - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Carlisle United - Dundee United	0:2 ✺
25.07.23	Chorley - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
15.07.23	Workington - Carlisle United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
30.04.16	Carlisle United - Oxford United	0:2
12.12.15	Oxford United - Carlisle United	1:1
28.03.15	Oxford United - Carlisle United	2:1
25.10.14	Carlisle United - Oxford United	2:1

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