Match Info

Championship - Round 24

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Swansea City

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.72	3.16	2.72	Watch
	2.72	3.22	2.67	Watch
	2.63	3	2.63
	2.67	3.1	2.67	Watch
	2.75	3.14	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.68)	3.14 ↑ (3.12)	2.68 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
34.9%

Draw
30%

Swansea City
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

29.9%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

29.8%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Oxford United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Swansea City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	54.5%	9.1%

Oxford United - Swansea City Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). Swansea will win (votes: 2 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Oxford (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Spencer B. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 12. Harris L. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 7. Placheta P. 19. Goodrham T. 17. Mills S. 16. Prelec N.	22. Vigouroux L. (G) 30. Galbraith E. 5. Cabango B. (C) 4. Fulton J. 14. Tymon J. 15. Burgess C. 6. Stamenic M. 27. Inoussa Z. 7. Widell M. 10. Eom J. 9. Vipotnik Z.
Substitutes
23. Dembele S. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 50. Krastev F. 27. Lankshear W. 22. Leigh G. 2. Long S. 11. ter Haar Romeny O. 4. Vaulks W.	26. Casey K. 1. Fisher A. (G) 17. Franco G. 2. Key J. 41. Parker S. 35. Ronald 16. Samuels-Smith I. 24. Wales B. 8. Yalcouye M.
Coaches
Short C.	Emanuel Soares Matos V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Goodrham T. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Vipotnik Z. ⚽, Tymon J. (A),
35', Widell M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Inoussa Z. 🟨,
55', Harris L. ↓, Krastev F. ↑,
61', Inoussa Z. ↓, Ronald ↑,
61', Fulton J. ↓, Franco G. ↑,
66', Placheta P. ↓, Dembele S. ↑,
66', Prelec N. ↓, Lankshear W. ↑,
69', Currie J. 🟨,
73', Stamenic M. 🟨,
75', Eom J. 🟨,
76', Eom J. ↓, Yalcouye M. ↑,
77', Mills S. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
87', Widell M. ↓, Samuels-Smith I. ↑,
87', Galbraith E. ↓, Key J. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 21 and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 2.

Recent form of Oxford has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Swansea has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Oxford: Brannagan C. (Calf Injury) ter Avest H. (Injury)

There will not play in Swansea: Benson M. (International duty)

There are questionable in Oxford: Phillips M. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 2:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Oxford United - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.86%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
26.12.25	Oxford United - Southampton	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Oxford United - Preston North End	1:2 ✺
09.12.25	Blackburn Rovers - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Swansea City - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLLTL
- Swansea City
English League Championship
26.12.25	Coventry City - Swansea City	1:0 ✺
19.12.25	Swansea City - Wrexham	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Stoke City - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
09.12.25	Swansea City - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Swansea City - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
06.12.25	Swansea City - Oxford United	2:0
03.05.25	Swansea City - Oxford United	3:3
02.11.24	Oxford United - Swansea City	1:2
Club Friendly
21.07.23	Oxford United - Swansea City	1:0
English League Cup
09.08.22	Oxford United - Swansea City	3:2 penalties
English FA Cup
10.01.16	Oxford United - Swansea City	3:2

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