Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 12

Date: 1 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Paços de Ferreira		Felgueiras

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.2	1.91	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2
	3.88	3.44	2.04
	2.94	3.35	2.32	Watch
	3.6	3.1	1.95
	3.61	3.24	2.05	Watch
	3.66	3.25	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (2.94)	3.26 ↓ (3.35)	2.04 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
26.1%

Draw
28.4%

Felgueiras
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.9%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

26.7%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paços de Ferreira's form might have worsened.

Felgueiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Felgueiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	12%	36%

Paços de Ferreira - Felgueiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Felgueiras will win (votes: 9 - 36%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paços de Ferreira: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 5 - 50%). Felgueiras (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Paços de Ferreira (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Paços de Ferreira (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Felgueiras (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Marafona (G) 23. Ferreira T. (C) 77. Rafael 4. Kauan 22. Mota 88. Francisco Ramos 33. Fernandinho 5. Sousa A. 90. Lumungo R. 9. Victor J. 30. Costinha	13. Figueiredo C. (G) 17. Cruz F. 34. Silva A. 33. Dario 5. Rosas P. 18. Gabi 6. Martins H. 8. Landinho (C) 9. Santos Teixeira L. 19. Lucas Duarte 78. Moreira V.
Substitutes
21. Anilson 2. Cardoso G. 26. Cunha N. 7. Diego Fernandes 19. Gomes F. 12. Jeimes (G) 10. Matheus Martins 13. Pinto J. 36. Silva V.	77. Beni 20. Berna 4. Dudu Cruz 25. Felipe Scheibig (G) 30. Feliz 21. Jean Felipe 14. Jean-Marie M. 3. Pinto J. 12. Zangre A.
Coaches
Candido F.	Bento A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Landinho ⚽, Santos Teixeira L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Francisco Ramos ↓, Cunha N. ↑,
46', Sousa A. ↓, Silva V. ↑,
61', Silva V. 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Victor J. ⚽,
65', Fernandinho 🟨,
68', Fernandinho ↓, Nito ↑,
74', Victor J. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
74', Moreira V. ↓, Berna ↑,
79', Rafael 🟨,
80', Cruz F. 🟨,
81', Cruz F. ↓, Jean Felipe ↑,
85', Rafael ↓, Anilson ↑,
89', Santos Teixeira L. 🟨,
90', Nito 🟨,
90+6', Berna 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 13).

Paços de Ferreira has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Felgueiras is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Felgueiras will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paços de Ferreira won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Paços de Ferreira won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 2.5:3).

Last Results with these Odds

Paços de Ferreira - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.8%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
03.11.25	Paços de Ferreira - Leixões	3:1 ✺
30.10.25	Benfica B - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Portimonense	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Paços de Ferreira - Sporting Lisbon	2:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLWL
- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 2
16.11.25	Felgueiras - Farense	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Felgueiras - Académico de Viseu	1:3 ✺
04.11.25	Torreense - Felgueiras	2:0 ✺
24.10.25	Vizela - Felgueiras	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Atlético CP - Felgueiras	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
10.05.25	Paços de Ferreira - Felgueiras	1:2
12.01.25	Felgueiras - Paços de Ferreira	1:0
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Paços de Ferreira - Felgueiras	4:4

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