Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Perri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Südtirol-Alto Adige

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.95	2.95	Watch
	2.42	2.92	3.05	Watch
	2.20	3.23	3.12	Watch
	2.47	2.95	3.09	Watch
	2.4	3.05	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.2)	3.02 ↓ (3.23)	3.07 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
38.8%

Draw
30.8%

Südtirol-Alto Adige
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

28.5%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

27.5%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Padova - Südtirol Alto Adige Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 72. Faedo C. 32. Sgarbi F. 55. Villa L. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 44. Harder J. 7. Varas K. (C) 3. Barreca A. 15. Lasagna K. 92. Buonaiuto C.	31. Adamonis M. (G) 34. Veseli F. 5. Masiello A. 28. Kofler R. 79. Molina S. 21. Tait F. (C) 18. Tronchin S. 6. Martini J. 24. Davi S. 33. Merkaj S. 90. Odogwu R.
Substitutes
33. Baselli D. 4. Belli F. 20. Bortolussi M. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 58. Pastina C. 5. Perrotta M. 11. Seghetti A.	3. Bordon F. 46. Brik D. 17. Casiraghi D. 14. Coulibaly M. 23. Davi F. 11. Italeng J. 8. Mallamo A. 4. Mancini D. 9. Pecorino E. 1. Poluzzi G. (G) 13. Sabatini C. 7. Zedadka K.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Castori F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Merkaj S. ⚽, Molina S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Masiello A. ↓, Davi F. ↑,
55', Varas K. ↓, Bortolussi M. ↑,
57', Barreca A. 🟨,
62', Capelli A. 🟨,
65', Davi F. 🟨,
66', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
66', Lasagna K. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
66', Faedo C. ↓, Ghiglione P. ↑,
68', Tait F. ↓, Zedadka K. ↑,
77', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
78', Di Maggio L. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
78', Veseli F. ↓, Mancini D. ↑,
79', Odogwu R. ↓, Pecorino E. ↑,
81', Mancini D. 🟨,
84', Molina S. 🟨,
85', 1 - 1, Bortolussi M. (Pen),
90', Merkaj S. ↓, Bordon F. ↑,
90+1', Harder J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 10 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 1.

Recent performances by Padova have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Südtirol is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Padova: Baselli D. (Muscle Injury) Papu Gomez (Suspended) Silva J. (Health problems)

There will not play in Südtirol: El Kaouakibi H. (Thigh Injury) Pietrangeli N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Padova: Belli F. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Padova won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
29.10.25	Spezia - Padova	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Padova - Juve Stabia	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Catanzaro - Padova	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bari - Padova	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Padova - Avellino	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TTWLT
- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
29.10.25	Venezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Cesena	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Empoli	1:2 ✺
01.10.25	Pescara - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
16.04.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	0:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
06.04.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	0:1
09.03.22	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0
Italian Serie C Group A
12.12.21	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0
Italian Serie C Group B
21.02.21	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova	1:1
25.10.20	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:0
10.11.19	Padova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1

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