Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino)

Referee: Perenzoni D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Avellino		Padova

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.75	3.8	Watch
	2.25	2.82	3.5	Watch
	2.35	2.88	3.85
	2.23	3	3.54	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.25
	2.26	2.81	3.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.09)	2.86 ↓ (3.23)	3.61 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
41.4%

Draw
32.7%

Padova
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.7%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

28.3%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	58.8%	17.6%

Avellino - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Avellino will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Padova will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 58.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Padova (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Daffara G. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 44. Simic L. 4. Izzo A. 3. Sala M. 24. Sounas D. 6. Palmiero L. 39. Besaggio M. 20. Palumbo M. 14. Biasci T. 9. Patierno C. (C)	22. Sorrentino A. (G) 4. Belli F. 32. Sgarbi F. 58. Pastina C. 72. Faedo C. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. (C) 77. Di Mariano F. 15. Lasagna K. 92. Buonaiuto C.
Substitutes
21. Armellino M. 56. Enrici P. 63. Fontanarosa A. 1. Iannarilli A. (G) 94. Insigne R. 16. Kumi J. 78. Milani A. 2. Missori F. 19. Reale F. 10. Russo R. 53. Sassi J. (G) 18. Sgarbi L.	24. Caprari G. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 14. Fortin M. (G) 18. Ghiglione P. 86. Giunti G. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 5. Perrotta M. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 7. Varas K. 55. Villa L.
Coaches
Ballardini D.	Andreoletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Sgarbi F. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
25', Izzo A. 🟨,
45+3', Patierno C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Crisetig L. ↓, Giunti G. ↑,
46', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
46', Faedo C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
49', Palmiero L. 🟨,
53', Pastina C. 🟨,
54', Villa L. 🟨,
64', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
66', Patierno C. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
79', Izzo A. ↓, Enrici P. ↑,
79', Sounas D. ↓, Insigne R. ↑,
82', Lasagna K. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 0, Russo R. ⚽, Enrici P. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 0.

Recent form of Avellino has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Padova has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Avellino could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Avellino: Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Izzo A. (Muscle Injury) Le Borgne A. (Red Card) Milani A. (Inactive) Pandolfi L. (Inactive) Tutino G. (Red Card)

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Barreca A. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Inactive)

There are questionable in Padova: Capelli A. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Avellino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11:7	4	10
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
03.03.26	Venezia - Avellino	4:0 ✺
28.02.26	Avellino - Juve Stabia	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Reggiana - Avellino	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Avellino - Pescara	0:1 ✺
11.02.26	Avellino - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTTLL
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
03.03.26	Padova - Spezia	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Modena - Padova	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Padova - Bari	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sampdoria - Padova	1:0 ✺
10.02.26	Padova - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
30.09.25	Padova - Avellino	2:2
Italian Super Cup Serie C
03.05.25	Avellino - Padova	0:1
Italian Serie C Group A
09.06.21	Avellino - Padova	0:1
06.06.21	Padova - Avellino	1:1
Italian Serie B
30.05.14	Padova - Avellino	2:1
29.12.13	Avellino - Padova	2:1

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