Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Marcello Torre (Pagani)


	Paganese		Fidelis Andria

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.1	3.7
	1.91	3.28	3.78	Watch
	1.93	3.16	3.74
	1.92	3.25	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.14)	3.2 ↓ (3.28)	3.72 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paganese
47.2%

Draw
28.4%

Fidelis Andria
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27.7%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

26.9%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paganese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Fidelis Andria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fidelis Andria might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paganese than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fidelis Andria than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Paganese - Fidelis Andria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, (Own goal),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paganese won 1.

Paganese is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fidelis Andria's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Paganese will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Paganese won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 0.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paganese won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Fidelis Andria	6	1	1	4	6:11	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paganese Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
11.01.26	Heraclea - Paganese	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Paganese - Nardo	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Paganese - Città di Fasano	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Nola - Paganese	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Paganese - Gravina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLTWW
- Fidelis Andria
Italian Serie D - Group H
11.01.26	Fidelis Andria - Barletta	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Ferrandina - Fidelis Andria	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Pompei - Fidelis Andria	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Fidelis Andria - Manfredonia	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Sarnese - Fidelis Andria	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
19.09.25	Fidelis Andria - Paganese	1:0
10.03.24	Fidelis Andria - Paganese	3:1
01.11.23	Paganese - Fidelis Andria	2:2
Italian Serie C Group B
14.05.22	Fidelis Andria - Paganese	1:0
07.05.22	Paganese - Fidelis Andria	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
20.03.22	Fidelis Andria - Paganese	1:0
14.11.21	Paganese - Fidelis Andria	0:1

Paganese - Fidelis Andria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide