Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Marcello Torre (Pagani)


	Paganese		Nardo

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.2	4.2
	2.15	3.3	2.88
	1.68	3.39	4.89	Watch
	1.75	3	4.5
	1.75	3.22	4.55
	1.77	3.25	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.17)	3.23 ↓ (3.33)	4.23 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paganese
50.3%

Draw
28.2%

Nardo
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

27.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

26.8%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paganese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paganese's performance.

Nardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nardo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paganese than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paganese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nardo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Paganese - Nardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 0 - 1, D'Anna S. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 7).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Paganese is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paganese won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Paganese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	A.C.D. Nardo	6	1	2	3	5:11	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paganese Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
21.12.25	Paganese - Città di Fasano	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Nola - Paganese	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Paganese - Gravina	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Afragolese - Paganese	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Paganese - Real Normanna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWWLW
- ACD Nardo
Italian Serie D - Group H
21.12.25	Barletta - Nardo	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Nardo - Ferrandina	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Manfredonia - Nardo	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Nardo - Sarnese	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Pompei - Nardo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
07.09.25	Nardo - Paganese	1:2
14.01.24	Paganese - Nardo	1:1
17.09.23	Nardo - Paganese	1:1

Paganese - Nardo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide