Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu)

Referee: Chiaramonti A. (And)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV
Iceland	Stod 2 Besta Deildin 1


	Paide LM		Stjarnan

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.7	2.5	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.5
	2.6	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.64	3.5	2.66
	2.59	3.51	2.53	Watch
	2.61	3.5	2.5	Watch
	2.6	3.6	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.57)	3.54 ↑ (3.27)	2.51 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
36.5%

Draw
26.3%

Stjarnan
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.2%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

28.1%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Stjarnan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	35.3%	41.2%

Paide LM - Stjarnan Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Paide will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Stjarnan will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 17% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 2. Lilander M. 23. Delevic M. 27. Baranov N. 29. Saliste J. 16. Medic P. 6. Kristal P. 41. Luts D. 14. Saarma R. 8. Ojamaa H. (C) 20. Ceesay A.	13. Rosenorn M. (G) 30. Kjartansson K. 5. Kristjansson G. (C) 6. Ingimarsson S. T. 15. Valdimarsson T. 32. Orvarsson O. 7. Eggertsson O. 35. Ingason H. 10. Halldorsson H. 80. Thorkelsson R. 22. Atlason E.
Substitutes
1. Aksalu M. (G) 10. Frolov A. 11. Gomis M. 25. Gueye M. 28. Hoim O. 17. Jepihhin D. 5. Juhkam G. 19. Luts S. 15. Ojamaa H. 9. Piht K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 24. Suso M.	14. Barkarson J. H. 11. Birgisson A. 37. Brink H. O. 41. Gudjonsson A. M. 8. Gunnarsson J. 24. Jonsson S. 9. Laxdal D. 19. Matthiasson D. 33. Oddgeirsson V. (G) 12. Olafsson A. (G)
Coaches
Stojkovic I.	Elisabetarson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Kristal P. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', 2 - 0, Saarma R. ⚽, Ceesay A. (A),
57', 3 - 0, Ceesay A. ⚽,
61', Kjartansson K. ↓, Gunnarsson J. ↑,
61', Halldorsson H. ↓, Brink H. O. ↑,
64', Thorkelsson R. ↓, Birgisson A. ↑,
64', Ingimarsson S. T. ↓, Laxdal D. ↑,
67', Ceesay A. ↓, Gomis M. ↑,
74', Medic P. ↓, Hoim O. ↑,
74', Saarma R. ↓, Jepihhin D. ↑,
77', Ingason H. 🟨,
78', Gomis M. 🟨,
82', Kristal P. 🟨,
83', Luts D. ↓, Juhkam G. ↑,
84', Kristjansson G. 🟨,
85', 4 - 0, Lilander M. ⚽,

Preview

2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Parnu Rannastaadion. 1st leg result: 1-2.

Recent matches Paide is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Stjarnan is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Stjarnan could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Paide won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Stjarnan - Paide LM	2:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.07.24	Paide LM - Tallinna Kalev	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.07.24	Paide LM - Bala Town	1:1 ET ✺
11.07.24	Bala Town - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.24	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLWT
- UMF Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
28.07.24	Akraness - Stjarnan	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Stjarnan - Paide LM	2:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
21.07.24	Stjarnan - Fylkir	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.07.24	Linfield - Stjarnan	3:2 ✺
11.07.24	Stjarnan - Linfield	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Stjarnan - Paide LM	2:1

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