Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 2

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV


	Paide LM		Narva Trans

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.7	4.45
	1.67	4.05	4.63
	1.65	4.07	4.56	Watch
	1.65	3.6	4.4
	1.62	3.78	4.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.71)	3.84 ↑ (3.7)	4.53 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
55.7%

Draw
24%

Narva Trans
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

24.6%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

24.1%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Narva Trans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Paide LM - Narva Trans Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Paide will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Narva Trans will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Narva Trans (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Narva Trans (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 3. Victor Hugo 4. Andrade 2. Lilander M. 28. Hoim O. (C) 77. Luts D. 11. Sohna M. P. 10. Miller M. 14. Jobarteh M. 9. Anier H.	27. Pareiko D. (G) 17. Skinjov A. 5. Campagna C. 12. Eriks Santos 7. Velijev M. 21. Maksimkin M. (C) 39. Poliakov D. 4. Ivanyushin A. 11. Kozhushko M. 10. Gero A. 29. Kudriashov V.
Substitutes
30. Badamosi A. 27. Baranov N. 6. Daniel Cabral 5. Juhkam G. 19. Luts S. 24. Nigula R. 15. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.	47. Baljabkin N. 88. Besigirskis A. 9. Doke J. 19. Elysee 70. Imeh J. 16. Kondrattsev S. 28. Miranda da Silva K. 26. Rowe H. 30. Timoska A. 1. Zahharov M. (G)
Coaches
Vassiljev V.	Kozhukhovskyi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Velijev M. 🟨,
14', Anier H. 🟨,
25', Poliakov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Miller M. ↓, Daniel Cabral ↑,
60', Kozhushko M. ↓, Doke J. ↑,
60', Poliakov D. ↓, Elysee ↑,
69', Luts D. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
69', Jobarteh M. ↓, Nigula R. ↑,
75', Kudriashov V. ↓, Baljabkin N. ↑,
89', Pareiko D. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 0, Daniel Cabral ⚽,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Paide has had a series of home games.

In this match, Paide is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paide won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paide won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
10	Narva	29	5	4	20	22:65	-43	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Cup
11.03.26	Paide LM - Tallinna Kalev	6:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
07.03.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.02.26	Paide LM - Super Nova	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWLW
- Narva Trans
Estonian Cup
11.03.26	Narva Trans - Viimsi JK	4:3 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
07.03.26	Narva Trans - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
25.02.26	Narva Trans - Tartu Welco	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
07.02.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1
Estonian Meistriliiga
27.09.25	Narva Trans - Paide LM	2:3
20.07.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:0
31.05.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	0:1
15.03.25	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:0
Club Friendly
18.01.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	1:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
29.09.24	Narva Trans - Paide LM	0:3

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