Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 32

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	17:00	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Paide LM		Narva Trans

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.90	5.00
	1.5	4.05	5.4
	1.54	4.23	5.32
	1.54	4.33	5.3	Watch
	1.49	4.1	5.2
	1.47	4.1	5.52	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.54)	4.13 ↑ (4.07)	5.28 ↑ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
60.6%

Draw
22.1%

Narva Trans
17.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59%

22.4%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21.5%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Narva Trans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Narva Trans than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Paide LM - Narva Trans Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Paide will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Meerits M. (G) 2. Lilander M. 27. Baranov N. 21. Smirnov R. 4. Andrade 77. Luts D. 28. Hoim O. (C) 10. Miller M. 23. Palacios J. 29. Darboe D. 6. Daniel Cabral	27. Pareiko D. (G) 5. Campagna C. 12. Eriks Santos 14. Filatov A. 3. Berardozzi T. 48. Awusi W. 8. Agaptsev S. 22. Zuravljov E. (C) 7. Velijev M. 10. Gero A. 47. Baljabkin N.
Substitutes
17. Cham P. A. 99. Jarju E. (G) 14. Jobarteh M. 37. Kanne K. 19. Luts S. 63. Reivik K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 16. Surogin A.	88. Besigirskis A. 24. Betancor Y. 9. Doke J. 19. Elysee 4. Ivanyushin A. 28. Miranda da Silva K. 66. Petkus E. 39. Poliakov D. 17. Skinjov A. 6. Slein G. 30. Venteo I. (G)
Coaches
Kink T.	Campana D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Palacios J. ⚽, Daniel Cabral (A),
25', Smirnov R. 🟨,
38', Velijev M. 🟨,
38', Zuravljov E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Palacios J. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Awusi W. ⚽,
65', Darboe D. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
68', Luts D. 🟨,
74', Baljabkin N. ↓, Slein G. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Velijev M. (Own goal),
79', Velijev M. ↓, Ivanyushin A. ↑,
79', Gero A. ↓, Betancor Y. ↑,
79', Smirnov R. ↓, Surogin A. ↑,
87', Agaptsev S. ↓, Besigirskis A. ↑,
87', Zuravljov E. ↓, Miranda da Silva K. ↑,
88', Daniel Cabral ↓, Cham P. A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 2.

Paide has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Narva Trans has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Paide may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Paide for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Paide has recorded 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:21 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Paide against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 13:11 goals (averaging 1.4:1.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Paide	33	18	6	9	53:39	14	60
10	Narva ✔	34	5	5	24	26:76	-50	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
14.10.26	Paide LM - Tammeka	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Nõmme United - Paide LM	1:3 ✺
16.09.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWL
- Narva Trans
Estonian Meistriliiga
14.10.26	Narva Trans - Kuressaare	0:1 ✺
10.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Narva Trans - Levadia Tallinn	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Narva Trans	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Narva Trans - Flora Tallinn	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
16.08.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1
20.05.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:0
15.03.26	Paide LM - Narva Trans	1:0
Club Friendly
07.02.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1
Estonian Meistriliiga
27.09.25	Narva Trans - Paide LM	2:3
20.07.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:0
31.05.25	Paide LM - Narva Trans	0:1

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