Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 10

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)

Referee: Jakobson J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Paide LM		Tammeka

	1	X	2
	1.43	4.4	5.25
	1.35	4.7	6.4	Watch
	1.37	5.2	7.37
	1.48	4.66	5.56	Watch
	1.33	4.6	6.5
	1.34	4.8	6.84	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.38)	4.71 ↓ (4.8)	6.29 ↓ (6.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
66%

Draw
19.4%

Tammeka
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

19.2%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

18.1%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Tammeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tammeka than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Paide LM - Tammeka Predictions

Users Predictions: Paide LM will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Jarju E. (G) 7. Tur E. 5. Juhkam G. 4. Andrade 3. Victor Hugo 6. Daniel Cabral 28. Hoim O. (C) 10. Miller M. 14. Jobarteh M. 9. Anier H. 11. Sohna M. P.	26. Lapa K. (G) 6. Karis M. 3. Pedro Manoel 44. Kangaslahti O. (C) 28. Kallas R. 7. Thomas Lisboa 22. Lang T. 23. Veelma P. 10. Uggeri G. 79. Marin P. 19. Koskor T.
Substitutes
30. Badamosi A. 27. Baranov N. 17. Cham P. A. 37. Kanne K. 2. Lilander M. 77. Luts D. 12. Meerits M. (G) 24. Nigula R. 15. Ojamaa H. 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.	15. Epton D. 99. Hydara M. 17. Ignatius C. 89. Kauan Pereira 77. Kiidjarv C. (G) 8. Kiidron K. 9. Miil M. 29. Silov R. 4. Vaino M. 25. Viinapuu A.
Coaches
Kink T.	Voolaid K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Jobarteh M. 🟨,
34', Victor Hugo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Karis M. ↓, Miil M. ↑,
60', Jobarteh M. ↓, Luts D. ↑,
61', Marin P. ↓, Ignatius C. ↑,
62', Daniel Cabral 🟨,
68', Lang T. ↓, Epton D. ↑,
68', Koskor T. ↓, Kauan Pereira ↑,
70', Pedro Manoel 🟨,
75', Daniel Cabral ↓, Smirnov R. ↑,
77', Veelma P. 🟨,
77', Tur E. ↓, Lilander M. ↑,
81', Thomas Lisboa ↓, Vaino M. ↑,
88', 0 - 1, Veelma P. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Ignatius C. 🟨,
90+4', Sohna M. P. 🟨,
90+8', Miil M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 4 and 9 in the zone Meistriliiga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 5.

Paide is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tammeka has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Paide is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paide won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 41:12. (average 2.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Paide won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 23:4. (average 2.6:0.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
5	Tammeka	29	14	2	13	37:47	-10	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
26.04.26	Paide LM - Flora Tallinn	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Harju JK Laagri - Paide LM	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Paide LM - Nõmme Kalju	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	1:4 ✺
08.04.26	Paide LM - Nõmme United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTWWW
- JK Tammeka Tartu
Estonian Meistriliiga
25.04.26	Harju JK Laagri - Tammeka	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Tammeka - Levadia Tallinn	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Tammeka	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	1:4 ✺
07.04.26	Narva Trans - Tammeka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
12.04.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	1:4
Estonian Cup
29.10.25	Paide LM - Tammeka	3:0
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.10.25	Paide LM - Tammeka	5:0
23.08.25	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:1
28.06.25	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:2
05.04.25	Paide LM - Tammeka	1:0
Club Friendly
26.01.25	Tammeka - Paide LM	Canceled

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