Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 27

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Tamme Stadium (Tartu)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tammeka		Paide LM

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.00	3.40	2.00
	3.35	3.65	1.90
	3.08	4.03	2.10
	3.06	4	2.03	Watch
	2.90	3.95	2.07
	3.08	3.70	2.10	Watch
	3.00	3.65	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (4.14)	3.77 ↓ (3.85)	2.03 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tammeka
30.1%

Draw
24.5%

Paide LM
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

23.8%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

24.2%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tammeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tammeka's performance.

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paide LM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tammeka than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tammeka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paide LM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Tammeka - Paide LM Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tammeka will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Paide will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tammeka (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tammeka (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tammeka (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Lapa K. (G) 3. Pedro Manoel 13. Laabus R. 44. Kangaslahti O. (C) 23. Veelma P. 99. Hydara M. 7. Thomas Lisboa 24. Pedmanson H. 10. Uggeri G. 89. Kauan Pereira 9. Sambe M.	12. Meerits M. (G) 2. Lilander M. 44. Kait K. 3. Victor Hugo 4. Andrade 28. Hoim O. (C) 77. Luts D. 23. Palacios J. 10. Miller M. 11. Sohna M. P. 9. Anier H.
Substitutes
8. Kiidron K. 22. Lang T. 79. Marin P. 27. Ounpuu L. 12. Sahtel K. (G) 29. Silov R. 4. Vaino M. 25. Viinapuu A. 5. Vister M.	17. Cham P. A. 29. Darboe D. 14. Jobarteh M. 19. Luts S. 8. Ojamaa H. 15. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 56. Sapp M. (G) 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A. 7. Tur E.
Coaches
Voolaid K.	Kink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Thomas Lisboa 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Palacios J. ⚽, Luts D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 0 - 2, Sohna M. P. ⚽, Luts D. (A),
57', Laabus R. ↓, Lang T. ↑,
57', Palacios J. ↓, Jobarteh M. ↑,
58', Miller M. ↓, Smirnov R. ↑,
70', Silov R. 🟨,
72', 🟨,
74', Smirnov R. 🟥,
78', Sohna M. P. 🟨,
78', Sohna M. P. ↓, Cham P. A. ↑,
78', Anier H. ↓, Darboe D. ↑,
78', Luts D. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
80', Hydara M. ↓, Marin P. ↑,
80', Sambe M. ↓, Kiidron K. ↑,
81', Lilander M. 🟨,
86', Luts S. 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tammeka won 1.

Tammeka is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Paide has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tammeka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paide is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tammeka won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 12:38. (average 0.6:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tammeka won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 0.7:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
5	Tammeka	29	14	2	13	37:47	-10	44

Last Results with these Odds

Paide LM - the odds 1.69 are the expected chance of winning is 54.14%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- JK Tammeka Tartu
Estonian Meistriliiga
06.09.26	Harju JK Laagri - Tammeka	0:2 ✺
02.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Tammeka	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Narva Trans - Tammeka	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Tammeka - Flora Tallinn	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	Tammeka - Kuressaare	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WLWWW
- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
06.09.26	Paide LM - Levadia Tallinn	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	4:1 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
23.08.26	Paide LM - Nõmme United	4:1 ✺
16.08.26	Narva Trans - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
01.05.26	Paide LM - Tammeka	0:1
12.04.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	1:4
Estonian Cup
29.10.25	Paide LM - Tammeka	3:0
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.10.25	Paide LM - Tammeka	5:0
23.08.25	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:1
28.06.25	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:2
05.04.25	Paide LM - Tammeka	1:0

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