Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 22

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)

Referee: Kaivoja K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paide LM		Pärnu Vaprus

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.20	5.25
	1.50	4.10	5.30
	1.59	4.30	5.75
	1.5	4.52	5.5	Watch
	1.57	3.75	5.65
	1.56	4.26	5.19	Watch
	1.49	4.30	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.61)	4.2 ↑ (3.98)	5.41 ↑ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide LM
60.8%

Draw
22%

Pärnu Vaprus
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

23%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

22.3%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Meerits M. (G) 7. Tur E. 4. Andrade 3. Victor Hugo 2. Lilander M. 6. Daniel Cabral 28. Hoim O. (C) 23. Palacios J. 11. Sohna M. P. 19. Luts S. 20. Piht K.	16. Nomm O. (C) 43. Seppik M. 28. Lipp M. 5. Aer S. 24. Villota M. 90. Sild J. 20. Valja H. 10. Viidas S. 8. Pajo T. 9. Poder J. 42. Limberg M.
Substitutes
17. Cham P. A. 29. Darboe D. 14. Jobarteh M. 44. Kait K. 77. Luts D. 8. Ojamaa H. 15. Ojamaa H. 56. Sapp M. (G) 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.	17. Kapper S. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 74. Kutsar K. 66. Nomm U. 14. Orm R. 3. Rand K. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 1. Vainu H. (G) 7. Vallik V. 4. Villota M.
Coaches
Kink T.	Prins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Palacios J. ⚽, Tur E. (A),
12', Valja H. 🟨,
22', Sohna M. P. 🟨,
45+3', Lipp M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Daniel Cabral ↓, Smirnov R. ↑,
77', Poder J. ↓, Vallik V. ↑,
77', Viidas S. ↓, Orm R. ↑,
77', Villota M. ↓, Kapper S. ↑,
78', Luts S. ↓, Ojamaa H. ↑,
78', Piht K. ↓, Luts D. ↑,
84', Lilander M. ↓, Ojamaa H. ↑,
84', Tur E. ↓, Kait K. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 0, Palacios J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paide won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Pärnu Vaprus may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Paide is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Paide won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 40:18. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Paide won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:7. (average 2.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39:57	-18	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
13.09.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Paide LM - Levadia Tallinn	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
26.08.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLWL
- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
12.09.26	Levadia Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	4:0 ✺
09.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Harju JK Laagri	3:2 ✺
05.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
02.09.26	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
29.08.26	Kuressaare - Pärnu Vaprus	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
04.07.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:1
Estonian Cup
06.05.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0
Estonian Meistriliiga
07.03.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM	3:2
02.11.25	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	3:0
30.08.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM	1:0
18.06.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM	1:2
09.04.25	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	1:0

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