Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 16

Date: 14 January 2024, Sunday


	Paiosaco		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.95	2.5
	2.74	2.84	2.37
	2.74	2.84	2.37
	2.96	2.99	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.22)	2.91 ↓ (3.25)	2.41 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paiosaco
32.3%

Draw
30.7%

UD Ourense
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

28%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

26.9%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paiosaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paiosaco's form might have worsened.

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting UD Ourense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paiosaco than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paiosaco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for UD Ourense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 1 (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paiosaco won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Paiosaco could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Paiosaco will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Paiosaco won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Paiosaco won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Paiosaco
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
07.01.24	Paiosaco - Barbadás	0:0 ✺
16.12.23	Pontevedra B - Paiosaco	1:3 ✺
03.12.23	Paiosaco - Arzúa	2:1 ✺
26.11.23	Bergantiños - Paiosaco	3:0 ✺
19.11.23	Paiosaco - Gran Peña	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWWLL
- UD Ourense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
06.01.24	Pontevedra B - UD Ourense	2:1 ✺
16.12.23	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	0:1 ✺
02.12.23	Arosa - UD Ourense	1:0 ✺
26.11.23	UD Ourense - Sarriana	2:1 ✺
19.11.23	Betanzos - UD Ourense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
26.03.23	UD Ourense - Paiosaco	2:0
04.12.22	Paiosaco - UD Ourense	0:0
06.06.21	Paiosaco - UD Ourense	0:1
25.04.21	UD Ourense - Paiosaco	4:3
25.08.19	Paiosaco - UD Ourense	1:1
10.03.19	Paiosaco - UD Ourense	3:0
12.10.18	UD Ourense - Paiosaco	4:0

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