Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 37

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub


	Palermo		Ascoli

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.3	3	3.3
	2.3	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.08	3.54	3.62
	2.33	2.95	3.77
	2.05	3.25	3.6
	2.4	2.91	3.44	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.09)	3.12 ↓ (3.45)	3.45 ↓ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
42%

Draw
30.4%

Ascoli
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

27.5%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

27.4%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	36.4%	18.2%

Palermo - Ascoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Palermo will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Ascoli will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Desplanches S. (G) 23. Diakite S. 5. Lucioni F. 32. Ceccaroni P. 18. Nedelcearu I. 8. Segre J. 4. Gomes C. 14. Ranocchia F. 3. Lund K. 27. Soleri E. 9. Brunori M. (C)	32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 41. Valzania L. 33. Botteghin E. 3. Mantovani V. 23. Falzerano M. 13. Celia R. 55. Bellusci G. 7. Zedadka K. 10. Caligara F. 18. Di Tacchio F. 19. Tarantino J.
Substitutes
25. Buttaro A. 17. Di Francesco F. 2. Graves S. 53. Henderson L. 11. Insigne R. 13. Kanuric A. (G) 7. Mancuso L. 15. Marconi I. 22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 6. Stulac L. 70. Traore C.	17. Adjapong C. 12. Bolletta L. (G) 15. D'Uffizi S. 29. Duris D. 8. Giovane S. 73. Masini P. 30. Nestorovski I. 14. Quaranta D. 99. Rodriguez P. 11. Streng J. 16. Vaisanen S. 2. Viviano E. (G)
Coaches
Mignani M.	Carrera M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Brunori M. ⚽, Soleri E. (A),
16', Diakite S. 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Caligara F. ⚽, Celia R. (A),
34', 2 - 1, Soleri E. ⚽, Segre J. (A),
45+1', Di Tacchio F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Gomes C. ↓, Henderson L. ↑,
57', Valzania L. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
57', Di Tacchio F. ↓, Masini P. ↑,
58', Tarantino J. ↓, Nestorovski I. ↑,
65', Celia R. ↓, D'Uffizi S. ↑,
68', Ranocchia F. ↓, Di Francesco F. ↑,
73', Henderson L. 🟨,
82', Falzerano M. ↓, Duris D. ↑,
83', Brunori M. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
83', Ceccaroni P. ↓, Marconi I. ↑,
83', Nedelcearu I. ↓, Stulac L. ↑,
90', Lucioni F. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 2, Caligara F. ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Palermo won 4.

Palermo is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Ascoli is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Palermo will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Palermo won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Palermo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
01.05.24	Spezia - Palermo	1:0 ✺
27.04.24	Palermo - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
19.04.24	Palermo - Parma	0:0 ✺
13.04.24	Nuova Cosenza - Palermo	1:1 ✺
06.04.24	Palermo - Sampdoria	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLTTT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie B
01.05.24	Ascoli - Nuova Cosenza	0:1 ✺
27.04.24	Ternana - Ascoli	0:1 ✺
20.04.24	Ascoli - Modena	0:0 ✺
13.04.24	Cittadella - Ascoli	0:0 ✺
07.04.24	Ascoli - Venezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
16.09.23	Ascoli - Palermo	0:1
29.01.23	Ascoli - Palermo	1:2
27.08.22	Palermo - Ascoli	2:3
04.05.19	Ascoli - Palermo	1:2
27.12.18	Palermo - Ascoli	3:0
27.02.18	Palermo - Ascoli	4:1
30.09.17	Ascoli - Palermo	0:0

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