Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 36

Date: 6 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Italy	Sky Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Palermo		SPAL

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.73	3.75	4.4
	1.75	3.7	4.4
	1.75	3.95	4.88
	1.74	3.9	4.45	Watch
	1.74	3.75	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.03)	3.8 ↑ (3.2)	4.55 ↑ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
54.3%

Draw
24.9%

SPAL
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

29%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

29.7%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palermo's performance.

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palermo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.2%	12.5%	8.3%

Palermo - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (19 of 24 users predict this - 79.17%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.92% – 95.42%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Palermo has the most likely position - 11 (17.6%), project points - 49, currently - 45, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a chance of prom. playoffs (16%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (40.83%), project points - 38, currently - 35, a good chance of relegated (84%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 29, importance 41, match rating 35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Palermo is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches SPAL is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Palermo is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Palermo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
01.05.23	Como - Palermo	1:1 ✺
22.04.23	Palermo - Benevento	1:1 ✺
15.04.23	Venezia - Palermo	3:2 ✺
10.04.23	Palermo - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
01.04.23	Parma - Palermo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLTL
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
30.04.23	SPAL - Perugia	1:1 ✺
22.04.23	Modena - SPAL	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	SPAL - Brescia	2:2 ✺
10.04.23	Benevento - SPAL	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	SPAL - Ternana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
11.12.22	SPAL - Palermo	1:1

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