Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group B - Round 21

Date: 5 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Paolo Mazza (Ferrara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
World	FIFA+


	SPAL		Perugia

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.95	2.87
	2.35	3.05	3.1
	2.43	3.04	2.96	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.25	3.1	3.01	Watch
	2.35	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.58)	3.02 ↓ (3.19)	3.01 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
39.3%

Draw
30.3%

Perugia
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

28.6%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

27.7%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Perugia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

SPAL - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Perugia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Galeotti C. (G) 7. Antenucci M. (C) 23. Arena M. 26. Bassoli A. 77. Bidaoui S. 28. Calapai L. 33. D'Orazio L. 8. El Kaddouri O. 19. Mignanelli D. 11. Rao E. 20. Zammarini R.	22. Albertoni M. (G) 15. Dell'Orco C. (C) 18. Di Maggio L. 98. Giraudo F. 6. Giunti G. 23. Lisi F. 10. Matos 94. Mezzoni F. 9. Montevago D. 28. Riccardi D. 24. Torrasi E.
Substitutes
5. Awua T. 27. Boccia A. 3. Bruscagin M. 80. Buchel M. 92. Cecchinato L. 91. Conte O. 15. Haoudi H. 90. Kane L. 1. Melgrati R. (G) 22. Meneghetti M. (G) 29. Nador S. 18. Ntenda J. 10. Radrezza I.	13. Amoran P. 7. Bacchin L. 16. Bartolomei P. 29. Broh J. 17. Cisco A. 4. Leo D. 30. Marconi G. 67. Plaia M. 73. Polizzi M. 54. Romagnoli D. 12. Yimga F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', El Kaddouri O. 🟨,
21', Bidaoui S. 🟨,
24', Montevago D. 🟨,
40', Lisi F. 🟨,
42', El Kaddouri O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bidaoui S. ↓, Nador S. ↑,
60', Giunti G. ↓, Polizzi M. ↑,
60', Lisi F. ↓, Broh J. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Di Maggio L. ⚽,
72', Rao E. ↓, Haoudi H. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Antenucci M. ⚽,
75', Torrasi E. ↓, Bartolomei P. ↑,
77', Bassoli A. 🟨,
89', Di Maggio L. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
89', Matos ↓, Marconi G. ↑,
89', D'Orazio L. ↓, Cecchinato L. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches SPAL won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

SPAL could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8:15 (average 0.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie C Group B
20.12.24	Ascoli - SPAL	1:1 ✺
15.12.24	Gubbio - SPAL	1:1 ✺
07.12.24	SPAL - Vis Pesaro	0:1 ✺
02.12.24	Pontedera - SPAL	5:1 ✺
23.11.24	SPAL - Sassari Torres	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTLLW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
22.12.24	Perugia - Pianese	1:1 ✺
15.12.24	Pontedera - Perugia	2:1 ✺
09.12.24	Perugia - Campobasso	2:1 ✺
01.12.24	Sestri Levante - Perugia	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
27.11.24	Perugia - Arezzo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
30.08.24	Perugia - SPAL	3:0
21.01.24	Perugia - SPAL	3:1
15.09.23	SPAL - Perugia	1:2
Italian Serie B
30.04.23	SPAL - Perugia	1:1
08.12.22	Perugia - SPAL	0:0
16.03.22	Perugia - SPAL	1:1
01.11.21	SPAL - Perugia	1:2

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