Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 34

Date: 22 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Santoro A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Modena		SPAL

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	5	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.85	3.4	4.25
	1.87	3.46	4.85
	1.91	3.25	4.2
	1.83	3.6	4.3	Watch
	1.84	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.05)	3.41 ↑ (3.15)	4.44 ↑ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
51%

Draw
27.7%

SPAL
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

29.5%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

28.9%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Modena's performance.

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Modena - SPAL Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). SPAL will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Modena has the most likely position - 11 (16.39%), project points - 50, currently - 43, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a chance of prom. playoffs (19%), a very small chance of promoted (1%), not chance of win league.

SPAL has the most likely position - 19 (34.2%), project points - 39, currently - 33, a good chance of relegated (79%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 29, importance 36, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Modena could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Modena is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Modena won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
14.04.23	Modena - Parma	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Perugia - Modena	0:1 ✺
02.04.23	Modena - Cittadella	0:0 ✺
17.03.23	Palermo - Modena	5:2 ✺
11.03.23	Modena - Pisa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWTLW
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
15.04.23	SPAL - Brescia	2:2 ✺
10.04.23	Benevento - SPAL	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	SPAL - Ternana	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - SPAL	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.12.22	SPAL - Modena	2:3

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