Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 34

Date: 22 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Maggioni L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Palermo		Benevento

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.9	3.4	3.9
	1.95	3.35	3.9
	1.95	3.53	4.31
	2.05	3.1	3.75
	1.91	3.34	4.3	Watch
	1.93	3.4	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.19)	3.36 ↑ (3.07)	4.04 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
48.6%

Draw
28.1%

Benevento
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

30.3%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

29.5%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palermo's performance.

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	31.2%	18.7%

Palermo - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Palermo will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Benevento will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 10 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Palermo has the most likely position - 10 (16.32%), project points - 50, currently - 43, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a chance of prom. playoffs (22%), a very small chance of promoted (1%), not chance of win league.

Benevento has the most likely position - 20 (70.08%), project points - 35, currently - 30, a very good chance of relegated (96%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 28, small importance 14, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Palermo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Benevento is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Palermo is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Palermo won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Palermo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
15.04.23	Venezia - Palermo	3:2 ✺
10.04.23	Palermo - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
01.04.23	Parma - Palermo	2:1 ✺
17.03.23	Palermo - Modena	5:2 ✺
11.03.23	Cittadella - Palermo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLWT
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
15.04.23	Benevento - Reggina	1:1 ✺
10.04.23	Benevento - SPAL	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	Bari - Benevento	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Pisa - Benevento	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Benevento - Como	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.12.22	Benevento - Palermo	0:1
14.04.19	Benevento - Palermo	1:2
30.11.18	Palermo - Benevento	0:0

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