Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 8
Belarus	Okko Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Palestino		Mushuc Runa

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4.2	Watch
	1.83	3.4	4.2
	1.78	3.75	4.2	Watch
	1.86	3.79	4.43
	1.78	3.88	4.37	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4	Watch
	1.77	3.88	4.2	Watch
	1.78	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.91)	3.71 ↑ (3.5)	4.23 ↑ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palestino
52.2%

Draw
25.5%

Mushuc Runa
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

26.8%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palestino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	36.4%	9.1%

Palestino - Mushuc Runa Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Palestino will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palestino: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 42. Meza F. 23. Leon J. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 10. Martinez Arce A. E. 5. Fernandez J. 14. Abrigo J. 20. Tapia Paez G. 27. Marabel J.	25. Formento R. (G) 4. Haquin L. 29. Quintero D. 2. Bentaberry B. 26. Peralta K. 14. Tapiero S. 5. Davila E. 31. Mina G. 41. Caicedo E. 17. Penilla C. 11. Miranda B.
Substitutes
18. Arias J. 11. Benitez J. 16. Bizama J. 9. Castro F. 26. Contreras D. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 8. Parra P. 24. Salgado D. 22. Soto B. 13. Suarez C. 28. Zuniga D.	22. Alonso M. 18. Bryan Angulo 21. Cristobal R. 50. Cusme J. 10. Delgado B. 19. Gracia A. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L. 32. Orejuela C. 42. Pabon W. (G) 3. Parrales J. 27. Simisterra R. 1. Tapia C. (G)
Coaches
Bovaglio L.	Almeida E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Espinoza Hevia V. A. 🟨,
24', Tapiero S. 🟨,
45+2', Davila E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Quintero D. 🟨,
57', Meza F. 🟨,
58', Fernandez J. 🟨,
65', Tapia Paez G. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
65', Fernandez J. ↓, Bizama J. ↑,
65', Carrasco B. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
65', Caicedo E. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
65', Miranda B. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
68', Simisterra R. 🟨,
70', 0 - 1, Orejuela C. ⚽,
77', Martinez Arce A. E. ↓, Parra P. ↑,
77', Marabel J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
79', Mina G. ↓, Gracia A. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Penilla C. ⚽, Orejuela C. (A),
90+5', Abrigo J. (Pen),

Preview

Palestino is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

Mushuc Runa is Qualified for Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Recent performances by Palestino have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mushuc Runa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Palestino has had a series of away games.

In this match, Palestino is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Palestino won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
24.05.25	Coquimbo Unido - Palestino	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Deportes Limache - Palestino	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.25	Cruzeiro - Palestino	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
10.05.25	Audax Italiano - Palestino	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TWLTW
- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
23.05.25	Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Orense	2:5 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Mushuc Runa	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.25	Manta - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
03.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Palestino	3:2

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