Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV4
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Mushuc Runa		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.4
	2.35	3.2	3	Watch
	2.37	3.2	3.18
	2.36	3.24	3.14	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.34	3.34	3.06	Watch
	2	3.3	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.11)	3.24 ↓ (3.31)	3.25 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mushuc Runa
41.9%

Draw
29.1%

Cruzeiro
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.4%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

28.6%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	20.8%	12.5%

Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%). Cruzeiro will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mushuc Runa: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Cruzeiro (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.25 - Mushuc Runa (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - Cruzeiro (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Cruzeiro (votes: 6 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Formento R. (G) 32. Orejuela C. 4. Haquin L. 29. Quintero D. 31. Mina G. 27. Simisterra R. 14. Tapiero S. 5. Davila E. 88. Arce L. 17. Penilla C. 37. Mancilla Quinones J. L.	1. Cassio (G) 12. William Furtado (C) 15. Fabricio Bruno 36. Kaua Prates 34. Jonathan Jesus 75. Rodriguinho 5. Walace 35. Murilo Rhikman 26. Diaz L. 11. Bolasie Y. 21. Eduardo
Substitutes
22. Alonso M. 18. Bryan Angulo 41. Caicedo E. 7. Castro S. 21. Cristobal R. 10. Delgado B. 11. Miranda B. 42. Pabon W. (G) 3. Parrales J. 26. Peralta K. 13. Perlaza P. 8. Zambrano A.	99. Dinenno J. 23. Fagner 14. Gamarra M. 6. Kaiki 19. Kaio Jorge 70. Kenji 41. Leo Aragao (G) 16. Lucas Silva 10. Matheus Pereira 81. Otavio Costa (G) 29. Romero L. 94. Wanderson
Coaches
Almeida E.	Jardim L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Davila E. 🟨,
37', Jonathan Jesus 🟨,
45+1', Murilo Rhikman 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, Orejuela C. ⚽,
60', Walace ↓, Romero L. ↑,
60', Rodriguinho ↓, Kenji ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Diaz L. ⚽,
67', Arce L. 🟨,
69', Eduardo ↓, Wanderson ↑,
69', Bolasie Y. ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
69', Simisterra R. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
78', Kaua Prates ↓, Fagner ↑,
80', Penilla C. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mushuc Runa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Mushuc Runa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mushuc Runa
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Macará	4:3 ✺
27.04.25	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.04.25	Libertad Loja - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
14.04.25	Mushuc Runa - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWLW
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Palestino - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Cruzeiro - Mushuc Runa	1:2

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