Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 14 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Ortega K. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 3, Tigo Sports App
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Cruzeiro		Palestino

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.3
	2.65	3.25	2.6	Watch
	2.71	3.4	2.65
	2.66	3.37	2.65	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.59	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.62)	3.33 ↓ (3.9)	2.81 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
37.8%

Draw
28.4%

Palestino
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

23.9%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

23.5%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cruzeiro's form might have worsened.

Palestino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palestino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+20.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cruzeiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palestino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Cruzeiro - Palestino Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Cruzeiro will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cruzeiro will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Leo Aragao (G) 12. William Furtado 34. Jonathan Jesus 25. Villalba L. 36. Kaua Prates 29. Romero L. (C) 35. Murilo Rhikman 88. Christian 70. Kenji 26. Diaz L. 9. Gabriel Barbosa	25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 42. Meza F. 13. Suarez C. 28. Zuniga D. 10. Martinez Arce A. E. 5. Fernandez J. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 14. Abrigo J. 11. Benitez J. 27. Marabel J.
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 99. Dinenno J. 23. Fagner 14. Gamarra M. 6. Kaiki 19. Kaio Jorge 16. Lucas Silva 10. Matheus Pereira 81. Otavio Costa (G) 75. Rodriguinho 5. Walace 94. Wanderson	18. Arias J. 16. Bizama J. 9. Castro F. 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 26. Contreras D. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 23. Leon J. 8. Parra P. 1. Salas S. (G) 24. Salgado D. 22. Soto B. 20. Tapia Paez G.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Bovaglio L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Martinez Arce A. E. ⚽, Abrigo J. (A),
43', William Furtado 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Christian ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
46', Villalba L. ↓, Gamarra M. ↑,
46', Romero L. ↓, Walace ↑,
49', Abrigo J. 🟨,
50', Kenji 🟨,
59', Zuniga D. 🟨,
59', Diaz L. ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
67', Abrigo J. ↓, Arias J. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Bolasie Y. ⚽, William Furtado (A),
70', Kenji ↓, Dinenno J. ↑,
73', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
76', Benitez J. 🟨,
76', Carrasco B. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
76', Benitez J. ↓, Parra P. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Dinenno J. (A),
90+3', Fernandez J. ↓, Salgado D. ↑,

Preview

Cruzeiro is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Palestino has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Palestino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cruzeiro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:4 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Mushuc Runa - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Cruzeiro - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Cruzeiro - Vila Nova	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WTWWW
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Cup
10.05.25	Audax Italiano - Palestino	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Unión Santa Fe - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
03.05.25	Everton de Viña - Palestino	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
30.04.25	Palestino - Deportes Concepción	4:4 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
27.04.25	Palestino - Universidad de Chile	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Palestino - Cruzeiro	2:1

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