Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 19

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Allianz Parque (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Palmeiras		Ceará

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.5	9	Watch
	1.47	4.1	7.5
	1.39	4.35	8.4
	1.39	4.7	9.85
	1.41	4.32	8.76	Watch
	1.4	4	8
	1.41	4.51	9.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.4)	4.35 ↓ (4.5)	8.66 ↑ (8.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
67.3%

Draw
21.8%

Ceará
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

20.9%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

19.9%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	36.7%	13.3%

Palmeiras - Ceará Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 14 - 48.3%). Ceará will win (votes: 4 - 13.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 30.1% – 66.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Ceará (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Weverton (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 13. Micael 22. Piquerez J. 5. Moreno A. 30. Lucas Evangelista 17. Torres F. 18. Mauricio 19. Sosa R. 9. Vitor Roque	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 20. Diego 26. Richardson (C) 97. Lourenco 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 9. Pedro Raul
Substitutes
40. Allan 56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 42. Lopez J. 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 2. Marcos Rocha 32. Martinez E. 26. Murilo 39. Thalys	11. Aylon 29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 88. Fernando Sobral 80. Guilherme Luiz 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 8. Matheus Araujo 30. Nicolas 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G)
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Leo Conde

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Richardson 🟨,
38', Matheus Bahia 🟨,
43', Moreno A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Lourenco ⚽, Galeano A. (A),
57', Torres F. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
57', Sosa R. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Lopez J. (Pen),
68', Lucas Mugni ↓, Nicolas ↑,
68', Lourenco ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽, Mauricio (A),
76', Richardson ↓, Aylon ↑,
84', Moreno A. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
84', Richard 🟨,
85', Vitor Roque ↓, Allan ↑,
86', Fabiano ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
87', Matheus Bahia ↓, Guilherme Luiz ↑,
90', Mauricio ↓, Khellven ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.

Recent performances by Palmeiras have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceará has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palmeiras is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Fuchs (Hamstring Injury) Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Ceará: Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Figueiredo (Inactive) Murilo (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:18. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:6. (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Vitória Salvador - Palmeiras	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Palmeiras - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
23.07.25	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTLWW
- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Ceará - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Cruzeiro - Ceará	1:2 ✺
23.07.25	Ceará - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Internacional RS - Ceará	1:0 ✺
16.07.25	Ceará - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
22.05.25	Palmeiras - Ceará	3:0
30.04.25	Ceará - Palmeiras	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.22	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:2
09.04.22	Palmeiras - Ceará	2:3
09.12.21	Palmeiras - Ceará	1:0
20.10.21	Ceará - Palmeiras	1:2
24.01.21	Ceará - Palmeiras	2:1

Upcoming Matches