Match Info

Cyprus League - Round 4

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Stelios Kyriakides Stadium (Pafos)

Referee: Christoforou M. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1


	Paphos		AEL Limassol

	1	X	2
	1.43	4.20	5.75
	1.44	4.25	5.9
	1.44	4.73	7.09
	1.49	4.45	6.02	Watch
	1.42	4.65	6.35
	1.49	4.19	6.39	Watch
	1.42	4.4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.36)	4.41 ↓ (4.48)	6.21 ↓ (7.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
64.1%

Draw
21%

AEL Limassol
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

20.6%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.6%

19.5%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

AEL Limassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paphos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEL Limassol than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Paphos - AEL Limassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Paphos will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Majecki R. (G) 7. Bruno 4. David Luiz (C) 30. Dragomir V. 5. Goldar D. 14. Ioannou N. 18. Lele 13. Moumi Ngamaleu N. 88. Pepe 12. Sema K. 26. Sunjic I.	1. Kapino S. (G) 33. Antoniou E. 9. Jovetic S. 77. Mughe F. R. 22. Neofytou K. 10. Oudin R. 30. Papageorgiou G. 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 11. Singh L. 20. Tavares J. 6. Zdravkovski D.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 20. Biel 60. Efzona C. 6. Guga 72. Ioannou K. 3. Mmaee S. 23. Noro J. 71. Papastylianou M. (G) 10. Patrao A. 82. Petrou P. (G) 8. Quina D. 2. Zague Y.	75. Christofi S. 4. Denswil S. . Geoffrey C. 84. Karamani C. 2. Karo A. 70. Kyriacou K. 98. Kyriakou P. (G) 74. Merzouk S. (G) 17. Paroutis D. 35. Sergio Conceicao 80. Tavares J.
Coaches
Sa Pinto R.	Martins H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Ioannou N. 🟨,
42', Bruno 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ioannou N. ↓, Biel ↑,
46', 0 - 1, Mughe F. R. ⚽,
53', 0 - 2, Singh L. ⚽,
55', Dragomir V. ↓, Guga ↑,
55', Sunjic I. ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
66', Mughe F. R. ↓, Sergio Conceicao ↑,
66', Moumi Ngamaleu N. ↓, Quina D. ↑,
66', Bruno ↓, Zague Y. ↑,
70', Lele 🟨,
71', Tavares J. 🟨,
75', Singh L. ↓, Tavares J. ↑,
75', Tavares J. ↓, Denswil S. ↑,
90', Papageorgiou G. ↓, Karo A. ↑,
90', Jovetic S. ↓, Paroutis D. ↑,
90+2', Guga 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paphos won 5.

Paphos has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

AEL shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The betting markets point to Paphos as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Confirmed absences for Paphos: Correia J. (Inactive) Jaja (Inactive) Kyriakidis C. (Inactive) Mammadov M. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for AEL: Catakovic H. (Inactive) Gomis Y. (Inactive).

Our forecast points to a victory for Paphos in today's match, at odds of 1.41.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Paphos has recorded 14 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:19 (averaging 1.6:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Paphos against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 20:7 goals (averaging 1.8:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	AEL Limassol	4	3	0	1	6:7	-1	9
4	Pafos	4	2	1	1	4:2	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
13.09.26	AEK Larnaca - Paphos	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Paphos - Olympiacos Nicosia	0:0 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
03.09.26	Omonia - Paphos	0:1 ✺
Cypriot First Division
30.08.26	Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion - Paphos	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Paphos - Dinamo City	4:2 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTWWW
- AEL Limassol
Cypriot First Division
11.09.26	AEL Limassol - Nea Salamis	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	APOEL - AEL Limassol	6:0 ✺
30.08.26	AEL Limassol - Anorthosis	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
22.08.26	AEL Limassol - Aris Limassol	2:2 ✺
19.08.26	Krasava Ypsonas - AEL Limassol	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Cypriot Cup
22.04.26	Paphos - AEL Limassol	3:1
08.04.26	AEL Limassol - Paphos	1:2
Cypriot First Division
15.02.26	AEL Limassol - Paphos	0:1
02.11.25	Paphos - AEL Limassol	1:0
06.01.25	Paphos - AEL Limassol	4:0
22.09.24	AEL Limassol - Paphos	1:3
23.12.23	AEL Limassol - Paphos	1:2

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