Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 15 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: New Balance Arena (Bergamo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ladeback A. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	16:00	Disney+
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 5
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	Disney+
Colombia	14:00	Disney+
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Estonia	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 11
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Arena
Lithuania	22:00	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	14:00	Disney+
Philippines	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Singapore	03:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, M+ Liga de Campeones 9, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 14
Thailand	02:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United Kingdom	20:00	HBO Max, TNT Sports 9
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+


	Atalanta		Paphos

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.00	8.00
	1.33	5.00	7.25
	1.32	5.50	8.50
	1.35	5.53	8.40
	1.33	5.5	8.6	Watch
	1.33	5.30	8.30
	1.35	5.11	8.60
	1.30	4.85	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.5)	5.22 ↑ (4.4)	8.08 ↑ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Atalanta
70.5%

Draw
17.9%

Paphos
11.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63%

21.5%

15.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

23.3%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atalanta's performance.

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.3%	2.9%	2.9%

Atalanta - Paphos Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Atalanta (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atalanta will win (33 of 35 users predict this - 94.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atalanta will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Atalanta (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 77. Zappacosta D. 31. Kristensen T. 23. Kolasinac S. 47. Bernasconi L. 8. Pasalic M. (C) 70. Gaetano G. 99. Elmas E. 18. Raspadori G. 59. Zalewski N. 9. Scamacca G.	99. Majecki R. (G) 7. Bruno 3. Mmaee S. 4. David Luiz (C) 14. Ioannou N. 30. Dragomir V. 26. Sunjic I. 88. Pepe 8. Quina D. 18. Lele 20. Biel
Substitutes
17. De Ketelaere C. 13. Ederson 41. Idele J. 90. Krstovic N. 40. Obric R. 11. Rowe J. 10. Samardzic L. 51. Sonzogni M. (G) 57. Sportiello M. (G)	33. Anderson Silva 50. Brito A. 77. Correia J. 60. Efzona C. 6. Guga 72. Ioannou K. 61. Kais M. 42. Michael G. 71. Papastylianou M. (G) 82. Petrou P. (G) 12. Sema K.
Coaches
Sarri M.	Sa Pinto R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Elmas E. ⚽, Raspadori G. (A),
18', 2 - 0, Raspadori G. (Penalty Awarded),
21', Raspadori G. ↓, De Ketelaere C. ↑,
37', David Luiz ↓, Sema K. ↑,
44', 3 - 0, Scamacca G. ⚽, De Ketelaere C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bruno ↓, Correia J. ↑,
46', Quina D. ↓, Brito A. ↑,
50', Sa Pinto R. 🟨,
67', Pasalic M. ↓, Ederson ↑,
67', Zalewski N. ↓, Samardzic L. ↑,
69', Pepe ↓, Guga ↑,
69', Lele ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
80', Kristensen T. ↓, Idele J. ↑,
88', 3 - 1, Biel ⚽, Anderson Silva (A),

Preview

In recent outings, Atalanta has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Paphos shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Paphos could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Atalanta enters as the overwhelming favorite.

Confirmed absences for Atalanta: Hien I. (Muscle Injury) Kossounou O. (Thigh Injury) Scalvini G. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Atalanta: Bellanova R. (Knock) Sulemana K. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Paphos: Mammadov M. (Inactive).

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	3:3	0	3
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	2:4	-2	1

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Atalanta: 10.72% Pafos: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Atalanta - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.02%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atalanta
Italian Serie A
12.10.26	Atalanta - Venezia	3:1 ✺
20.09.26	Juventus - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Atalanta - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Roma - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Atalanta - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLW
- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
11.10.26	Anorthosis - Paphos	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Paphos - AEL Limassol	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	AEK Larnaca - Paphos	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Paphos - Olympiacos Nicosia	0:0 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
03.09.26	Omonia - Paphos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWTW

Upcoming Matches