Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 31 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Charlety (Paris)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Paris FC		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.9	4.6	Watch
	1.82	3.6	4.33
	1.75	3.95	4.45
	1.76	3.94	4.8
	1.71	3.89	4.51	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4.33
	1.81	3.94	4.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.9)	3.83 ↑ (3.4)	4.54 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris FC
54.1%

Draw
24.9%

Metz
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

27.1%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

26.8%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paris FC's performance.

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81%	14.3%	4.8%

Paris FC - Metz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Paris FC (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Metz (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Paris FC (1.96) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris FC will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Paris FC (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Metz (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Trapp K. (G) 31. Chergui S. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 28. De Smet T. 21. Lopez M. (C) 4. Marchetti V. 17. Camara A. 10. Kebbal I. 9. Geubbels W. 27. Simon M.	1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 21. Stambouli B. 8. Traore B. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 10. Hein G. (C) 9. Abuashvili G. 18. Gueye I.
Substitutes
13. Cafaro M. 12. Dicko N. 8. Doucet L. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 11. Krasso J. 33. Lees-Melou P. 20. Lopez J. 1. Riou R. (G) 19. Sangui N.	19. Bokele Mputu M. 2. Colin M. 20. Deminguet J. 24. Madjo B. 25. Melieres C. 6. Nduquidi J. 23. Sane I. 61. Sy P. (G) 12. Toure A.
Coaches
Gilli S.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Sane S. ⚽, Hein G. (A),
45+1', Sane S. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Kebbal I. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 2 - 1, Kebbal I. ⚽, Simon M. (A),
54', 2 - 2, Traore B. ⚽, Tsitaishvili G. (A),
62', Abuashvili G. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
62', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
66', Camara A. ↓, Lees-Melou P. ↑,
66', Geubbels W. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
67', 3 - 2, Simon M. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
69', Otavio 🟨,
77', De Smet T. ↓, Sangui N. ↑,
77', Yegbe T. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
80', Sane S. 🟥,
90', Simon M. ↓, Dicko N. ↑,
90', Marchetti V. ↓, Cafaro M. ↑,
90+1', Gueye I. ↓, Madjo B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Paris FC is the team to beat.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Injury)

There are questionable in Paris FC: Gory A. (Ankle Injury) Hamel P. (Muscle Injury) Nkambadio O. (Tendon Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 10:26. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Paris FC won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 1:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2 ✺
17.08.25	Angers - Paris FC	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Nantes - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
06.08.25	Paris FC - UNFP	2:2 ✺
02.08.25	Paris FC - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWTT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
23.08.25	Lyon - Metz	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Metz - Strasbourg	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Troyes - Metz	0:1 ✺
26.07.25	Lens - Metz	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Metz - Red Star	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
18.01.25	Metz - Paris FC	3:1
14.09.24	Paris FC - Metz	1:2
29.04.23	Metz - Paris FC	1:1
12.11.22	Paris FC - Metz	1:4
22.02.19	Metz - Paris FC	2:0
22.09.18	Paris FC - Metz	2:1
French Coupe de la Ligue
26.10.16	Paris FC - Metz	1:2 penalties

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