Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday


	Pasaia		Alavés C

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.05
	3.34	3.14	2.08
	3.37	3.17	2.11
	3.35	3.13	2.07
	3.4	3.14	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (3.33)	3.14 ↑ (3.11)	2.07 (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pasaia
27.1%

Draw
29%

Alavés C
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.2%

29.1%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

28.5%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pasaia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Alavés C has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alavés C than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Pasaia - Alavés C Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 7).

Pasaia has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alavés C's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alavés C is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Alavés C will win today's game, with odds of 2.07.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pasaia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pasaia	5	3	1	1	7:6	1	10
8	Alaves C	5	2	1	2	11:6	5	7

Last Results with these Odds

Pasaia - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 27.17%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pasaia KE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
25.01.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Pasaia	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Pasaia - Leioa	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Pasaia - Eibar C	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Añorga - Pasaia	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Pasaia - Durango	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Deportivo Alavés C
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
24.01.26	Alavés C - Lagun Onak	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Deusto - Alavés C	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Portugalete - Alavés C	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alavés C - San Ignacio	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Derio - Alavés C	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.09.25	Alavés C - Pasaia	0:1
16.04.25	Pasaia - Alavés C	1:0
08.12.24	Alavés C - Pasaia	4:1
24.02.24	Pasaia - Alavés C	0:0

Pasaia - Alavés C: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide