Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 19

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Referee: Camargo S. (Col)


	Patriotas		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.2	2.95	3.2
	2.35	3	3.3
	2.29	2.9	3.54
	2.3	2.87	3.54
	2.2	3	3.25
	2.24	2.99	3.34	Watch
	2.17	2.95	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.3)	2.97 ↓ (3)	3.36 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patriotas
41.1%

Draw
31.2%

Deportivo Pasto
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

30.4%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

29.8%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	71.4%	0%

Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Patriotas will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Valencia J. (G) 13. Bello Vivas S. E. 3. Valencia Asprilla S. A. 4. Alarcon A. (C) 25. De Las Salas C. 6. Diaz J. 29. Ayala J. 7. Moreno S. 20. Ruiz D. 30. Rivas I. 17. Charris C.	34. Espindola M. (G) 22. Alba I. 2. Carabali B. 5. Gil N. 32. Mafla C. (C) 17. Chavez D. 23. Arrieta C. 15. Gomez S. 14. Charrupi G. 7. Londono K. 16. Santiago Trellez
Substitutes
26. Borja C. 28. Mosquera C. 38. Payares L. 5. Rodas M. 1. Roman S. (G) 14. Sierra J. 33. Torres F.	25. Amaya A. 8. Ayala C. 10. Campana J. 18. Contreras D. 3. Malagon J. 1. Martinez D. (G) 37. Riascos D.
Coaches
Rivera H.	Florentin G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Londono K. ⚽, Mafla C. (A),
26', 0 - 2, Londono K. ⚽,
28', Mafla C. 🟨,
31', Bello Vivas S. E. ↓, Payares L. ↑,
42', Valencia Asprilla S. A. 🟨,
45', Moreno S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Charris C. ↓, Mosquera C. ↑,
51', Ayala J. ↓, Rodas M. ↑,
63', Valencia Asprilla S. A. ↓, Sierra J. ↑,
63', Moreno S. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,
67', De Las Salas C. 🟨,
68', Chavez D. ↓, Amaya A. ↑,
72', Espindola M. 🟨,
75', Arrieta C. ↓, Ayala C. ↑,
76', 0 - 3, Gomez S. ⚽, Londono K. (A),
86', Gomez S. ↓, Campana J. ↑,
86', Mafla C. ↓, Malagon J. ↑,
86', Santiago Trellez ↓, Riascos D. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 0.

Patriotas is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Deportivo Pasto is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Deportivo Pasto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Patriotas will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 5 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Patriotas won 3 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patriotas FC
Colombian Copa
25.04.24	Patriotas - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
21.04.24	Deportes Tolima - Patriotas	2:1 ✺
18.04.24	Patriotas - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
14.04.24	Boyacá Chicó - Patriotas	1:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
10.04.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LLLWL
- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
22.04.24	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	2:3 ✺
18.04.24	América de Cali - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
14.04.24	Deportivo Pasto - Millonarios	2:3 ✺
06.04.24	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
30.03.24	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
11.10.22	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	1:1
26.04.22	Deportivo Pasto - Patriotas	0:0
29.08.21	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
25.03.21	Deportivo Pasto - Patriotas	1:0
14.10.20	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	1:1
19.10.19	Patriotas - Deportivo Pasto	1:0
28.04.19	Deportivo Pasto - Patriotas	1:1

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