Match Info

COLOMBIA: Primera A - Apertura - Round 18

Date: 21 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro (Ibagué)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)


	Deportes Tolima		Patriotas

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.2	8.5	Watch
	1.42	4.1	7
	1.42	4.33	8	Watch
	1.4	4.3	8.78
	1.41	4.3	8.79
	1.36	4.2	8
	1.39	4.27	7.85	Watch
	1.38	4.2	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.43)	4.24 ↑ (3.93)	8.04 ↑ (7.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Tolima
66.4%

Draw
22%

Patriotas
11.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

23.4%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

22.3%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Patriotas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Patriotas aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Deportes Tolima - Patriotas Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportes Tolima will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Neto Volpi (G) 26. Hurtado Torres Y. D. 5. Mera J. 2. Angulo A. 20. Hernandez J. 80. Rovira B. 15. Nieto J. (C) 23. Castro A. 30. Gil Hurtado B. 18. Perez K. 9. Cortes C.	32. Valencia J. (G) 3. Valencia Asprilla S. A. 4. Alarcon A. 5. Rodas M. 25. De Las Salas C. 20. Ruiz D. 34. Bello Vivas S. E. 29. Ayala J. 30. Rivas I. 17. Charris C. 10. Parra Atehortua K.
Substitutes
24. Angulo J. 12. Chaverra J. (G) 16. Esparragoza C. 7. Gonzalez L. 4. Haydar C. 28. Miranda L. 6. Trujillo C.	12. Amaya Garcia J. A. (G) 16. Banguero F. 8. Castano C. 19. Martinez C. 2. Pezzi A. 35. Quinonez D. 15. Roa S.
Coaches
Gonzalez D.	Rivera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Angulo A. 🟨,
30', De Las Salas C. 🟨,
38', Rovira B. 🟨,
41', Ruiz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Cortes C. ↓, Esparragoza C. ↑,
70', Rovira B. ↓, Trujillo C. ↑,
71', Castro A. ↓, Miranda L. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Esparragoza C. ⚽,
73', Rivas I. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, De Las Salas C. ⚽, Rodas M. (A),
77', Esparragoza C. 🟨,
80', Gil Hurtado B. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
81', Rivas I. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,
81', Rodas M. ↓, Banguero F. ↑,
83', Perez K. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
88', Parra Atehortua K. ↓, Roa S. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Miranda L. ⚽,
90+2', Valencia Asprilla S. A. 🟨,
90+3', Mera J. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: ) and 20).

Deportes Tolima is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 2.

Deportes Tolima is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Patriotas is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Patriotas could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Deportes Tolima is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Deportes Tolima to win the game is with odds 1.42.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Deportes Tolima won 10 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 23-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportes Tolima won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
16.04.24	Envigado - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
12.04.24	Deportes Tolima - Rionegro Águilas	2:1 ✺
05.04.24	Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima	2:1 ✺
29.03.24	Alianza Valledupar - Deportes Tolima	0:2 ✺
23.03.24	Deportes Tolima - Deportivo Pereira	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWW
- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera A
18.04.24	Patriotas - Independiente Medellín	2:3 ✺
14.04.24	Boyacá Chicó - Patriotas	1:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
10.04.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
07.04.24	Patriotas - Alianza Valledupar	0:0 ✺
31.03.24	Independiente Santa Fe - Patriotas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
09.09.22	Patriotas - Deportes Tolima	1:1
16.03.22	Deportes Tolima - Patriotas	1:2
26.09.21	Patriotas - Deportes Tolima	0:0
19.02.21	Deportes Tolima - Patriotas	3:1
08.03.20	Deportes Tolima - Patriotas	1:0
24.10.19	Deportes Tolima - Patriotas	2:1
01.05.19	Patriotas - Deportes Tolima	1:0

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