The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Patriotas 38.6%
Draw 30.3%
Independiente Medellín 31.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.2%
30.7%
38.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.8%
29.2%
36.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Patriotas's performance.
Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente Medellín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Patriotas that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente Medellín could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
62.5%
37.5%
0%
Patriotas - Independiente Medellín Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Patriotas will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Patriotas: 29% – 96%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
32. Valencia J. (G) 15. Roa S. 4. Alarcon A. 5. Rodas M. 25. De Las Salas C. 20. Ruiz D. 6. Diaz J. 29. Ayala J. 30. Rivas I. 19. Martinez C. 10. Parra Atehortua K.
1. Gomez Palacio Y. A. (G) 26. Graciano C. 24. Ortiz J. 4. Palacios M. 17. Fory J. 14. Perlaza B. 5. Lima P. 11. Plata A. 10. Monsalve M. 8. Garcia M. 30. Arizala J.
Substitutes
12. Amaya Garcia J. A. (G) 8. Castano C. 17. Charris C. 2. Pezzi A. 33. Quinonez D. 27. Sarria E. 35. Torres F.
25. Chaux E. (G) 16. Davila A. 77. Jhon Vasquez 20. Montano J. 31. Moreno D. 21. Santacruz S. 32. Torijano F.
Coaches
Rivera H.
Arias A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
5', Alarcon A. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Ayala J. ⚽, De Las Salas C. (A),
25', Palacios M. 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, Ruiz D. ⚽, Rodas M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Palacios M. ↓, Torijano F. ↑,
46', Perlaza B. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
46', Arizala J. ↓, Jhon Vasquez ↑,
55', Plata A. ↓, Montano J. ↑,
56', Martinez C. ↓, Sarria E. ↑,
56', Rivas I. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Monsalve M. ⚽, Lima P. (A),
74', Monsalve M. ↓, Davila A. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Valencia J. (Own goal),
87', Sarria E. ↓, Pezzi A. ↑,
90', 2 - 3, Garcia M. ⚽, Moreno D. (A),
90+4', Roa S. 🟨,
90+5', Ayala J. 🟨,
90+5', Diaz J. 🟨,
Preview
The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 11).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 1.
One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
Independiente Medellín could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Patriotas will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 19 head-to-head matches Patriotas won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 13 matches and goals 15-32.
Including matches at home between the teams Patriotas won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-7.
Watch
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Valencia J. (G) 
Lima P. 
Pezzi A. 
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