Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Patriotas		Leones

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.42	4.25	6.5
	1.42	4.34	7.9
	1.41	4.45	7.32
	1.4	3.8	7
	1.37	4.1	7.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.43)	4.19 ↑ (3.95)	7.32 ↑ (7.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patriotas
65.5%

Draw
22%

Leones
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

23.1%

12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

15.6%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patriotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Leones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patriotas than the current prediction. (-22.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Patriotas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leones could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Patriotas - Leones Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Patriotas (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Patriotas will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Patriotas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Amaya Garcia J. A. (G) 10. Alvarez K. 7. Campana J. 2. Carabali 30. Gomez M. 38. Molano S. 14. Montes J. 3. Palomeque D. 5. Salazar Sandoval K. A. (C) 28. Salguero Zapata C. S. 6. Torres F.	12. Arboleda J. (G) 27. Castano J. 17. Gonzalez A. 28. Hincapie Ossa J. F. 3. Marmolejo D. 8. Martinez J. 5. Meneses G. (C) 24. Montoya S. 16. Renteria J. 18. Restrepo N. 7. Rodriguez Cespedes C.
Substitutes
23. Barahona J. 37. Bedoya M. 8. Copete C. 40. Diaz R. 9. Fernandez B. 19. Figueroa F. 27. Mora A. 33. Pacheco T. 36. Salamanca J. P. (G)	35. Arboleda M. 4. Garcia D. 33. Lopez Posada I. 32. Pasos E. 26. Posada S. 22. Restrepo J. 36. Sepulveda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Carabali 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Alvarez K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Castano J. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
60', Campana J. ↓, Mora A. ↑,
60', Montes J. ↓, Copete C. ↑,
60', Molano S. ↓, Bedoya M. ↑,
64', Mora A. 🟨,
70', Hincapie Ossa J. F. ↓, Restrepo J. ↑,
70', Gonzalez A. ↓, Pasos E. ↑,
71', Gomez M. ↓, Barahona J. ↑,
77', Martinez J. ↓, Posada S. ↑,
78', Montoya S. 🟨,
90+1', Torres F. ↓, Figueroa F. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Patriotas won 3.

Patriotas has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leones has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Patriotas is the clear favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Patriotas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Patriotas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 2:1.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Patriotas	11	5	2	4	17:17	0	17
15	Leones	11	2	4	5	8:17	-9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patriotas FC
Colombian Primera B
26.03.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Patriotas	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Patriotas - Boca Juniors de Cali	3:3 ✺
16.03.26	Unión Magdalena - Patriotas	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Patriotas - Deportes Quindío	0:0 ✺
06.03.26	Tigres - Patriotas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTT
- Leones FC
Colombian Primera B
25.03.26	Barranquilla - Leones	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Leones - Internacional de Palmira	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Leones	2:1 ✺
11.03.26	Leones - Envigado	0:3 ✺
03.03.26	Atlético Cali - Leones	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
20.09.25	Leones - Patriotas	0:1
11.04.25	Patriotas - Leones	3:1
18.08.23	Patriotas - Leones	1:3
06.03.23	Leones - Patriotas	0:0
Colombian Primera A
04.11.18	Patriotas - Leones	2:1
29.04.18	Leones - Patriotas	1:1

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