Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 14

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)


	Patronato Parana		Chacarita Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.85	3.75	Watch
	2.15	2.88	3.6	Watch
	2.24	2.99	4.03
	2.3	2.6	4.08	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.75
	2.13	2.74	3.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.48)	2.81 ↑ (2.68)	3.83 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
42.7%

Draw
33.1%

Chacarita Juniors
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

34.9%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

34.6%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Chacarita Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	83.3%	16.7%

Patronato Parana - Chacarita Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Chacarita will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa A. (C) 4. Rueda W. 2. Diaz G. 6. Meritello F. 3. Piccioni S. 8. Salas J. 5. Bravo F. 10. Cortes B. 11. Pereyra V. L. 7. Soldano F. 9. Rivero H.	1. Bologna E. (G) 4. Facello F. 2. Velazquez J. 6. Mottes G. 3. Chaves N. 7. Melendez M. (C) 5. Bustos L. 8. Cuello A. 10. Cuevas J. 9. Cabral F. 11. Sanabria M.
Substitutes
16. Araujo A. 15. Barinaga J. P. 19. Barolin J. 12. Caballero M. (G) 13. Evangelista F. 20. Giacinti I. 14. Heredia F. 18. Miro A. 17. Picco A.	20. Barbieri J. 18. Brun L. 17. Cristaldo F. 19. dos Santos T. 13. Leyendeker M. 12. Losas F. (G) 15. Mellado M. 14. Pantaleone N. 16. Perdomo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Bravo F. 🟨,
25', Evangelista F. 🟥,
41', Rivero H. ↓, Barolin J. ↑,
45+3', 1 - 0, Cuello A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Cuevas J. ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
49', Cortes B. 🟨,
60', 🟨,
67', 🟨,
67', Cabral F. 🟥,
68', Diaz G. ↓, Heredia F. ↑,
68', Bustos L. ↓, Barbieri J. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Salas J. ⚽, Soldano F. (A),
77', Chaves N. 🟨,
82', Rueda W. 🟨,
84', Bravo F. ↓, Barinaga J. P. ↑,
84', Cortes B. ↓, Picco A. ↑,
84', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Miro A. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Patronato won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Patronato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Patronato will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Patronato won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Patronato won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:2. (average 3.7:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Chacarita Juniors - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.48%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
09.05.26	San Martín de San Juan - Patronato Parana	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Patronato Parana - Nueva Chicago	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Temperley - Patronato Parana	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Maipú	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Club Almagro - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 TWTTW
- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.05.26	Chacarita Juniors - Colegiales	2:0 ✺
04.05.26	Quilmes - Chacarita Juniors	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
28.09.24	Chacarita Juniors - Patronato Parana	1:0
12.05.24	Patronato Parana - Chacarita Juniors	2:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.02.18	Patronato Parana - Chacarita Juniors	3:0
Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.10.15	Patronato Parana - Chacarita Juniors	6:2
30.05.15	Chacarita Juniors - Patronato Parana	1:1
23.06.12	Chacarita Juniors - Patronato Parana	3:0

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