Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Landry R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Pau		Nîmes

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.1
	2.2	3.2	3.25
	2.22	3.1	3.15
	2.37	3.2	3.35
	2.25	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.26	3.3	3.18	Watch
	2.26	3.15	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.18)	3.19 ↑ (3.03)	3.2 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
41.4%

Draw
29.4%

Nîmes
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

30.3%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

28.4%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Nîmes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nîmes than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Pau - Nîmes Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Nîmes will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

Pau has the most likely position - 17 (9.38%), has project points - 45, has currently - 14, has a chance of relegated (23%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Nîmes has the most likely position - 17 (9.26%), has project points - 44, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (24%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, importance 39, match rating 34. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Pau is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Nîmes is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Pau will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Pau won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Pau won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
15.10.22	Annecy - Pau	0:2 ✺
08.10.22	Pau - Rodez	2:2 ✺
01.10.22	Metz - Pau	1:0 ✺
17.09.22	Pau - Valenciennes	1:0 ✺
10.09.22	Laval - Pau	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTLWW
- Nîmes Olympique
French Ligue 2
15.10.22	Nîmes - Amiens	2:0 ✺
08.10.22	Quevilly - Nîmes	3:1 ✺
01.10.22	Nîmes - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
17.09.22	Sochaux - Nîmes	3:1 ✺
10.09.22	Nîmes - Bastia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
01.02.22	Pau - Nîmes	0:3
14.08.21	Nîmes - Pau	0:0

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