Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 21

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Francis Le Basser (Laval)

Referee: Souifi A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free


	Laval		Pau

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.1	Watch
	2.95	3.4	2.3
	3.2	3.2	2.18	Watch
	3.41	3.33	2.24
	3.35	3.27	2.18	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.15
	3.28	3.38	2.22	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.64)	3.27 ↓ (3.45)	2.2 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Laval
28.9%

Draw
28.6%

Pau
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.1%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

26.5%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Laval has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Laval's form might have worsened.

Pau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Laval than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Laval, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	30%	60%

Laval - Pau Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Laval will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Pau will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Laval (1.90) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Pau (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Laval (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Pau (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samassa M. (G) 34. Maddy E. 4. Ouaneh P. 23. Tavares Y. 12. Commaret M. 21. Aradj Y. 9. Camara M. 6. Sanna S. (C) 15. Mbayo D. 8. Thomas T. 10. Sellouki M.	40. Paradowski T. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 4. Karamoko S. 23. Briancon A. 25. Ruiz J. (C) 3. Kalulu J. 21. Beusnard S. 14. Bobichon A. 84. Touzghar R. 10. Versini G. 18. Sadik O.
Substitutes
26. Benard W. 20. Clavreul E. 1. Hautbois M. (G) 31. Houdayer M. 35. Samb L. 33. Sidibe M. 18. Tchokounte M.	9. Dong K. 6. Fall C. 11. Gasnier K. 19. Kante 30. Salles E. (G) 17. Sissoko O. 87. Zuliani E.
Coaches
Frapolli O.	Debes T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Versini G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Sanna S. 🟨,
58', Ruiz J. 🟨,
58', Maddy E. ↓, Tchokounte M. ↑,
64', Versini G. ↓, Sissoko O. ↑,
74', Briancon A. ↓, Kante ↑,
75', Aradj Y. ↓, Samb L. ↑,
85', Thomas T. ↓, Benard W. ↑,
85', Sellouki M. ↓, Houdayer M. ↑,
85', Mbayo D. ↓, Clavreul E. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Laval won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Laval has had a series of away games.

Pau might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Laval: Bianda W. (Yellow Cards) Commaret M. (Muscle Injury) Dago T. (Inactive) Mandouki C. (Yellow Cards) Thomas T. (Hand Injury)

There will not play in Pau: Gasnier K. (Inactive) Gaspar J. (Inactive) Meddah D. (Inactive) Raveyre N. (Inactive) Sissoko O. (Inactive) Zuliani E. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Pau: Glossoa N. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Laval won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Laval won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Laval: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Pau FC	7	2	2	3	6:6	0	8
18	Laval	7	1	2	4	8:14	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Pau - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.52%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Laval
French Ligue 2
23.01.26	Amiens - Laval	0:0 ✺
16.01.26	Laval - Bastia	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Istres - Laval	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
03.01.26	Clermont - Laval	4:1 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Guingamp - Laval	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLWLW
- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
23.01.26	Pau - Grenoble	2:2 ✺
16.01.26	Dunkerque - Pau	3:1 ✺
03.01.26	Pau - Rodez	3:3 ✺
12.12.25	Pau - Amiens	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Montpellier - Pau	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
23.09.25	Pau - Laval	1:0
31.01.25	Pau - Laval	1:1
27.09.24	Laval - Pau	3:1
20.04.24	Pau - Laval	3:0
16.12.23	Laval - Pau	1:1
18.02.23	Pau - Laval	0:1
10.09.22	Laval - Pau	0:1

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