Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 22

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Pavia		Real Calepina

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.1	2.2
	2.92	3.26	2.25	Watch
	2.94	3.2	2.23
	3	3.14	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.88)	3.18 ↑ (3.15)	2.23 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavia
30.7%

Draw
28.6%

Real Calepina
40.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.1%

28.5%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

27.6%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Real Calepina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Calepina than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Pavia - Real Calepina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(2 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: ) and 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group B (Play Out: )).

Pavia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Real Calepina is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Real Calepina could have a small edge in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Real Calepina	9	3	3	3	14:14	0	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
25.01.26	Breno - Pavia	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Pavia - Oltrepo	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Milan Futuro - Pavia	0:1 ✺
06.01.26	Pavia - Caldiero Terme	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Pavia - Chievo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TTWLL
- Real Calepina
Italian Serie D - Group B
25.01.26	Real Calepina - Varesina	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Vogherese - Real Calepina	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Real Calepina - Brusaporto	1:0 ✺
06.01.26	Villa Valle - Real Calepina	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Scanzorosciate - Real Calepina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19 WWWTW

Pavia - Real Calepina