Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 12

Date: 27 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu) (Belem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Paysandu		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.50	4.20
	1.58	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.62	4	5.31
	1.69	3.81	4.67
	1.56	3.8	5.25
	1.58	3.85	4.78	Watch
	1.58	3.7	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.79)	3.77 ↑ (3.2)	4.81 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
56.8%

Draw
24.2%

Santa Cruz Recife
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

28.2%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

31.3%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paysandu's performance.

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Paysandu - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: Paysandu will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 31. Bonifazi F. 14. Bruno Bispo 15. Castro 2. Edilson 5. Henrico 98. Juninho 75. Kleiton Pego 10. Marcinho (C) 39. Pedro Henrique 19. Thayllon	25. Gabriel Souza (G) 27. Edson Miranda (C) 4. Eurico 37. Everaldo 13. Matheus Vinicius 5. Pedro Favela 9. Quirino 17. Ronald 26. Silva 2. Thiago Ennes 18. Vitinho
Substitutes
23. Brian Macapa 17. Henrique Salomoni 9. Italo Carvalho 1. Jean Drosny (G) 94. Kaua Hinkel 4. larley Brito 26. Libonati 99. Lucas Cardoso 20. Matheus Capixaba 30. Thalyson 25. Tiago Indio	15. Andrey 14. Denis 7. Fabinho 30. Jefferson Bahia 8. Leo Costa 21. Nilton 20. Patrick Allan 11. Robinho 16. Rodrigues 12. Rokenedy (G) 24. Thiago Henrique (G) 23. Tiago Marques
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Cristian Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Juninho (Own goal),
33', Edson Miranda 🟨,
34', Gabriel Souza 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 2, Everaldo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Thayllon ↓, Italo Carvalho ↑,
56', Ronald ↓, Leo Costa ↑,
63', Edilson ↓, Thalyson ↑,
63', Henrico ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
65', Quirino ↓, Tiago Marques ↑,
65', Silva ↓, Fabinho ↑,
69', 0 - 3, Fabinho ⚽,
74', 1 - 3, Juninho ⚽,
79', Everaldo ↓, Robinho ↑,
79', Vitinho ↓, Rodrigues ↑,
85', Lucas Cardoso 🟨,
88', Kleiton Pego ↓, Kaua Hinkel ↑,
88', Castro ↓, larley Brito ↑,
90+3', Eurico 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Paysandu is seen as the favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:8. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Santa Cruz: 41.91%

Last Results with these Odds

Paysandu - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 50.36%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie C
20.06.26	Maranhão - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Paysandu - Internacional de Limeira	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
07.06.26	Paysandu - Anápolis	4:0 ✺
04.06.26	Anápolis - Paysandu	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
31.05.26	Figueirense - Paysandu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWLL
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie C
20.06.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Brusque - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
31.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
05.09.21	Paysandu - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0
03.07.21	Santa Cruz Recife - Paysandu	1:2
11.10.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Paysandu	2:1
08.08.20	Paysandu - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
18.11.17	Paysandu - Santa Cruz Recife	4:2
01.08.17	Santa Cruz Recife - Paysandu	1:2
08.09.15	Santa Cruz Recife - Paysandu	1:2

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