Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports, LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.8	3.1	2.1
	3.7	3.15	2.08	Watch
	4.01	3.18	2.16
	3.88	3.16	2.1	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.05	Watch
	3.73	3.24	2.15	Watch
	3.7	3.15	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (2.57)	3.16 ↓ (3.22)	2.1 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
25.2%

Draw
29.9%

Flamengo
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

29.6%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

30.2%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peñarol de Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Flamengo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flamengo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.7%	4.7%	90.6%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 64 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 3 - 4.7%). Flamengo will win (votes: 58 - 90.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 4.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 83.5% – 97.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. (C) 14. Garcia D. 13. Darias E. 7. Cabrera J. 8. Fernandez L. 28. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 15. Fabricio Bruno 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 3. Leo Ortiz 18. de la Cruz N. 8. Gerson (C) 14. de Arrascaeta G. 45. Plata G. 27. Bruno Henrique
Substitutes
90. Avenatti F. 9. Batista F. 5. Cristoforo S. 12. De Amores G. (G) 16. Fernandez A. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 18. Mayada C. 97. Medina A. 6. Perez R. 10. Ramirez G. 26. Sequeira L.	37. Alcaraz C. 21. Allan 6. Ayrton Lucas 22. Carlinhos 23. David Luiz 52. Evertton 99. Gabriel Barbosa 19. Lorran 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 5. Pulgar E. 43. Wesley
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Plata G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Plata G. ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
59', Varela G. ↓, Wesley ↑,
63', Leo Ortiz 🟨,
67', Baez J. ↓, Sequeira L. ↑,
67', Cabrera J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
74', Alex Sandro ↓, Ayrton Lucas ↑,
77', Silvera M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
83', Leo Ortiz ↓, Matheus Goncalves ↑,
83', Fabricio Bruno ↓, David Luiz ↑,
90', Darias E. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Peñarol is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Flamengo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Flamengo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Peñarol have a series of guest games.

Flamengo will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Peñarol won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.09.24	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:5 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.09.24	Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.09.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Rampla Juniors	4:0 ✺
07.09.24	Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.24	The Strongest - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWWWL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.24	Grêmio - Flamengo	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.09.24	Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Corinthians - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
19.09.24	Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
08.05.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Flamengo	0:0
03.04.19	Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1

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