Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPN 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	beIN Sports
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, FuboTV
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	Flamengo		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.2	6.5	Watch
	1.52	3.9	7.25
	6.2	4.1	1.52	Watch
	1.51	3.96	7.86
	1.52	3.9	7.38	Watch
	1.44	3.6	7.5	Watch
	1.54	3.87	7.49	Watch
	6.2	4.1	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.6)	3.95 ↓ (4.47)	5.88 ↓ (6.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
46.9%

Draw
31.8%

Peñarol de Montevideo
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

29%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

10.8%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-28.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Flamengo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+35.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 15. Fabricio Bruno 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 18. de la Cruz N. 14. de Arrascaeta G. 8. Gerson (C) 45. Plata G. 27. Bruno Henrique	29. Aguerre W. (G) 20. Milans P. 23. Mendez J. 4. Rodriguez G. 15. Olivera M. (C) 14. Garcia D. 13. Darias E. 7. Cabrera J. 8. Fernandez L. 28. Baez J. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
37. Alcaraz C. 21. Allan 6. Ayrton Lucas 22. Carlinhos 33. Cleiton 23. David Luiz 52. Evertton 3. Leo Ortiz 19. Lorran 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 43. Wesley	90. Avenatti F. 9. Batista F. 5. Cristoforo S. 12. De Amores G. (G) 16. Fernandez A. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 18. Mayada C. 97. Medina A. 6. Perez R. 10. Ramirez G. 26. Sequeira L.
Coaches
Tite	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Cabrera J. ⚽, Silvera M. (A),
29', Garcia D. 🟨,
32', Mendez J. 🟨,
43', Plata G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Varela G. ↓, Wesley ↑,
53', Pulgar E. 🟨,
56', Pulgar E. ↓, Alcaraz C. ↑,
61', Plata G. ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
61', Alex Sandro ↓, Ayrton Lucas ↑,
68', Cabrera J. ↓, Sequeira L. ↑,
69', Darias E. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
69', Baez J. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
70', de la Cruz N. ↓, Leo Ortiz ↑,
73', Silvera M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
76', Milans P. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
90+1', Aguerre W. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Peñarol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Flamengo is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Flamengo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Flamengo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
15.09.24	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.09.24	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Corinthians - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.08.24	Bahia - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.08.24	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWLWW
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
14.09.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Rampla Juniors	4:0 ✺
07.09.24	Miramar Misiones - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.24	The Strongest - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
17.08.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.08.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - The Strongest	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.05.19	Peñarol de Montevideo - Flamengo	0:0
03.04.19	Flamengo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1

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