Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 22

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Kenny R. (Wal)


	Pen-y-Bont		Cardiff Metropolitan

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.6	4.35
	1.74	3.85	4.37	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.4
	1.7	3.45	4.53
	1.69	3.75	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.54)	3.61 ↓ (3.82)	4.43 ↓ (5.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
53.6%

Draw
25.6%

Cardiff Metropolitan
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

24%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

23.2%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pen-y-Bont's form might have worsened.

Cardiff Metropolitan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Pen y Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Pen-y-Bont will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Cardiff Metropolitan will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff Metropolitan (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Cardiff Metropolitan (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff Metropolitan (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Higgs D. (G) 16. Borge B. 33. Cvetkovic A. 11. Daley N. 6. Davies M. 29. Green C. 2. Ludvigsen K. 3. Owen K. (C) 14. Phillips I. 8. Pritchard O. 7. Wood N.	13. Seager S. (G) 2. Chubb M. 16. Craven C. 3. Edwards J. 7. Evans E. 20. John H. 10. Jones S. 14. Morris J. 19. Mwandwe L. 17. Payne J. 6. Reynolds R.
Substitutes
51. Clarke C. (G) 68. Coe P. 18. Jones J. 30. Little M. 17. Warlow O. 4. Williams N. 5. Woodiwiss J.	1. Absalom K. (G) 8. Kabongo D. 35. Popham B. 11. Roscrow A. 4. Walsh L. 22. Williams J.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Jenkins R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Mwandwe L. ⚽,
31', Green C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ludvigsen K. ↓, Woodiwiss J. ↑,
53', Seager S. 🟥,
54', John H. ↓, Absalom K. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Phillips I. ⚽,
74', Jones S. ↓, Popham B. ↑,
74', Cvetkovic A. ↓, Little M. ↑,
87', Payne J. ↓, Roscrow A. ↑,
90+9', Craven C. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

Pen-y-Bont is Qualified for Cymru Premier (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Cardiff Metropolitan has had a series of home games.

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:22. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pen-y-Bont won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.1:1.2).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
7	Cardiff Metropolitan	12	6	3	3	23:13	10	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
01.01.26	Llanelli - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Flint Town United	0:1 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
09.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WTLTL
- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Haverfordwest County	0:0 ✺
26.12.25	Barry Town United - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:0 ✺
16.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
13.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town	2:4 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Llanelli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
23.09.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	0:4
14.03.25	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:0
24.01.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	2:1
31.12.24	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.24	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.10.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	1:1
26.12.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	0:3

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