Match Info

Cymru Premier - Conference League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Llanelian Road (Old Colwyn)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C


	Colwyn Bay		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	2.85
	1.88	3.5	3.65
	1.85	3.69	4.12
	1.86	3.74	3.87	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.8
	1.81	3.58	3.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.18)	3.54 ↑ (3.4)	3.67 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colwyn Bay
48.7%

Draw
26.2%

Pen-y-Bont
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

26.9%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.4%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colwyn Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Colwyn Bay's performance.

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pen-y-Bont might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Colwyn Bay - Pen y Bont Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Brown A. (G) 21. Astles R. 9. Davies J. 23. Edwards A. 19. Hill M. 24. Hughes G. 12. Moore A. 4. Peate N. 11. Roberts E. 10. Robles L. 5. Sirrell L.	1. Armstrong L. (G) 21. Baker A. 16. Borge B. 10. Cann E. 15. Clay J. 33. Cvetkovic A. 6. Davies M. (C) 2. Ludvigsen K. 8. Pritchard O. 9. Venables C. 7. Wood N.
Substitutes
7. Cumming J. 3. Hart S. 38. Hoban B. 22. Kargbo I. 45. Murphy L. (G) 14. Williams A. 20. Williams A.	11. Daley N. 29. Green C. 24. Matthews A. (G) 14. Phillips I. 72. Villacorta J. 17. Warlow O. 5. Woodiwiss J.
Coaches
Wilde M.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Baker A. ↓, Green C. ↑,
67', Edwards A. ↓, Cumming J. ↑,
73', Clay J. ↓, Woodiwiss J. ↑,
77', Cvetkovic A. ↓, Daley N. ↑,
82', Hill M. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
88', Moore A. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 5)
1, Venables C. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Williams A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Wood N. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Hughes G. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Pritchard O. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Davies J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Daley N. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Sirrell L. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Green C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Colwyn Bay won 2.

Recent performances by Colwyn Bay have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pen-y-Bont has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Colwyn Bay is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Colwyn Bay won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Colwyn Bay won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 2.8:2).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Colwyn Bay: 1.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21:15	6	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.04.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Colwyn Bay - Caernarfon Town	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	The New Saints - Colwyn Bay	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Colwyn Bay - Barry Town United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.9 TLTWW
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.04.26	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Pen-y-Bont - Barry Town United	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Pen-y-Bont - The New Saints	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
28.03.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	0:0
21.02.26	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	3:1
29.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	5:4
27.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0
16.03.24	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	5:0
03.02.24	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
25.11.23	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	2:1

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