The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cardiff Metropolitan 28.3%
Draw 24.2%
Caernarfon Town 47.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
30.8%
26.3%
43%
Our Initial ML Estimation
30.4%
25.9%
43.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cardiff Metropolitan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)
Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Davies A. (G) 5. Clarke J. 8. Craven C. 14. Dymond-Hall S. 10. Jones S. 11. Mwandwe L. 9. Payne J. 33. Raison T. 36. Snaith S. 4. Veale J. 24. Wildig A.
13. Thomas H. (G) 19. Bradley S. 6. Canavan J. 11. Cieslewicz A. 9. Clarke Z. 14. Edwards N. 3. Jones M. 23. Marriott Ch. 7. Mendes P. 16. Nash B. 27. Sears R.
Substitutes
3. Edwards J. 23. Hooper J. 13. Howard W. (G) 20. John H. 18. Lloyd T. 29. Matthews H. 16. McKenzie M.
10. Evans O. 5. Mooney P. 21. Nyamwanza S. 15. Smith D. 17. Williams J. (G) 39. Wyn H. 25. Zanzala O.
Coaches
Jenkins R.
Davies R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Payne J. ⚽,
14', Mendes P. 🟨,
19', Mwandwe L. 🟨,
27', Edwards N. 🟨,
37', Mwandwe L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', Jones M. 🟨,
64', 2 - 0, Veale J. ⚽,
69', Wildig A. ↓, Edwards J. ↑,
73', Sears R. ↓, Zanzala O. ↑,
73', Bradley S. ↓, Nyamwanza S. ↑,
86', Craven C. ↓, Hooper J. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Evans O. ⚽,
90+3', Snaith S. ↓, Matthews H. ↑,
90+4', Marriott Ch. 🟨,
90+5', Cieslewicz A. ↓, Mooney P. ↑,
90+8', 2 - 2, Clarke Z. ⚽,
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th in the Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Conference League Group: ) and 3rd in the Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Metropolitan won 1.
Cardiff Metropolitan has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Caernarfon shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Cardiff Metropolitan could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Caernarfon is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cardiff Metropolitan has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:41 (averaging 1.3:2.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cardiff Metropolitan against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 13:18 goals (averaging 1.4:2 per game).
Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now
Caernarfon: 2.4%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
Caernarfon
12
7
2
3
35:14
21
23
7
Cardiff Metropolitan
12
6
3
3
23:13
10
21
Last Results with these Odds
Cardiff Metropolitan - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.78%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.
Wales
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Davies A. (G) 
Craven C. 
Cieslewicz A. 
Mendes P. 
Zanzala O. 
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