Match Info

Date: 23 October 2020, Friday


	Penafiel		Arouca

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.9	2.5
	2.95	2.9	2.4
	2.9	3	2.35
	3.05	2.8	2.46
	3.15	2.99	2.63
	3.1	2.8	2.55
	2.99	2.94	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.68)	2.9 ↓ (3.08)	2.48 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
30.6%

Draw
32%

Arouca
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

29.8%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

21.1%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penafiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arouca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Penafiel - Arouca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

A game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 7 and 6).

Recent matches Penafiel is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Arouca is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arouca could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
18.10.20	Académica Coimbra - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
10.10.20	Esperança de Lagos - Penafiel	1:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
02.10.20	Penafiel - Mafra	3:1 ✺
27.09.20	Porto B - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
23.09.20	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWWL
- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
17.10.20	Arouca - Benfica B	1:0 ✺
03.10.20	Cova De Piedade - Arouca	0:2 ✺
27.09.20	Arouca - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
22.09.20	Varzim - Arouca	0:0 ✺
19.09.20	Arouca - Leixões	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
20.01.19	Arouca - Penafiel	2:0
12.08.18	Penafiel - Arouca	1:2
29.04.18	Arouca - Penafiel	1:4
17.12.17	Penafiel - Arouca	2:0
Liga Portugal
19.04.15	Penafiel - Arouca	0:2
07.12.14	Arouca - Penafiel	0:1
Club Friendly
06.08.14	Arouca - Penafiel	0:1

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