Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 25

Date: 19 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Penafiel		Vilafranquense

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.2
	2.25	2.95	3
	2.4	2.88	2.95
	2.16	3.15	3.1
	2.34	3.11	3.51
	2.38	2.8	3
	2.26	3.13	3.2
	2.3	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.09)	3.02 ↓ (3.13)	3.13 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
40.1%

Draw
30.5%

Vilafranquense
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

29%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

28.8%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Vilafranquense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilafranquense than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	22.2%	44.4%

Penafiel - Vilafranquense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Vilafranquense will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vilafranquense: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Penafiel will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
10.03.23	Moreirense - Penafiel	3:1 ✺
04.03.23	Penafiel - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
24.02.23	Trofense - Penafiel	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
13.02.23	BSAD - Penafiel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWTT
- UD Vilafranquense
Portuguese Liga 2
11.03.23	Vilafranquense - Farense	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Benfica B - Vilafranquense	0:2 ✺
26.02.23	Vilafranquense - Porto B	1:2 ✺
18.02.23	Feirense - Vilafranquense	1:2 ✺
11.02.23	Vilafranquense - Trofense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.10.22	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:1
15.01.22	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	4:3
09.08.21	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:1
18.03.21	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	0:0
23.09.20	Penafiel - Vilafranquense	1:2
19.01.20	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	1:1
Taça de Portugal
24.09.17	Vilafranquense - Penafiel	1:0

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