Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 22

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Grupo Desportivo Peniche (Peniche)


	Peniche		Vitória de Sernache

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.15	2.1
	3.45	2.88	2.14
	3.4	3	2.15	Watch
	3.3	2.8	2.1
	3.44	2.93	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (3.15)	2.95 ↓ (3.13)	2.12 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peniche
27%

Draw
30.6%

Vitória de Sernache
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

29.1%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

28.5%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Vitória de Sernache has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Peniche - Vitória de Sernache Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+5', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peniche won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Sernache may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sernache will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Peniche won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Peniche won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.03.26	Os Marialvas - Peniche	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Peniche - Naval	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Mortágua - Peniche	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Peniche - Fatima	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Peniche - Lajense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWLTT
- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
08.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - Oliveira Hospital	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Marinhense - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Vitória de Sernache - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	União da Serra - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Eléctrico - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
09.11.25	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1
17.03.24	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	2:0
03.12.23	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
01.05.22	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	0:3
03.04.22	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	1:0
06.03.22	Vitória de Sernache - Peniche	0:0
12.12.21	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	2:2

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