Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 12

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ettore Mannucci (Pontedera)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Pontedera		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.82	3.05	2.45
	2.67	3.19	2.57	Watch
	2.92	2.91	2.41
	3	2.9	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.85 ↑ (2.62)	3.01 ↓ (3.14)	2.41 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontedera
31.9%

Draw
30.2%

Perugia
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

29.2%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

28%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontedera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Pontedera - Perugia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Raffi A. (G) 21. Perretta G. 5. Corradini F. 19. Pretato M. 7. Migliardi F. 14. Manfredonia M. 10. Ladinetti R. 17. Vitali P. 8. Faggi F. 25. Nabian H. 29. Andolfi T.	1. Gemello L. (G) 31. Tozzuolo A. 28. Riccardi D. 5. Angella G. 98. Giraudo F. 32. Megelaitis L. 16. Bartolomei P. 6. Giunti G. 77. Manzari G. 9. Montevago D. 7. Kanoute M.
Substitutes
24. Bassanini R. 33. Battimelli G. 32. Beghetto L. 23. Cerretti C. 27. Coviello A. 6. Gueye O. 4. Milazzo S. 18. Paolieri L. 20. Pietrelli R. 16. Polizzi M. 40. Strada N. (G) 26. Tempre M. 1. Vannucchi T. (G) 3. Vona E.	11. Bacchin L. 21. Broh J. 26. Calapai L. 19. Dottori C. 30. Giardino C. 4. Joselito 12. Moro L. (G) 99. Nwanege K. 29. Ogunseye R. 71. Rondolini P. 55. Strapini 17. Terrnava D. 24. Torrasi E. 20. Tumbarello G. 3. Yabre M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', Megelaitis L. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Vitali P. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Giraudo F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Giunti G. 🟨,
56', 2 - 1, Ladinetti R. ⚽,
59', Kanoute M. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
59', Giunti G. ↓, Torrasi E. ↑,
63', Montevago D. 🟨,
66', Andolfi T. ↓, Battimelli G. ↑,
69', 2 - 2, Manzari G. ⚽,
72', Battimelli G. 🟨,
73', Nabian H. ↓, Polizzi M. ↑,
76', Tozzuolo A. 🟨,
85', Manzari G. ↓, Joselito ↑,
85', Montevago D. ↓, Giardino C. ↑,
90+1', Migliardi F. ↓, Cerretti C. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 1.

Pontedera has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Perugia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Perugia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Pontedera won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontedera won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1.3:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Pontedera - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 34.91%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Perugia - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.92%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
25.10.25	Juventus U23 - Pontedera	0:1 ✺
20.10.25	Pontedera - Vis Pesaro	0:2 ✺
12.10.25	Ascoli - Pontedera	5:0 ✺
05.10.25	Gubbio - Pontedera	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Pontedera - Forlì	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLLTW
- Perugia Calcio
Coppa Italia Serie C
30.10.25	Latina - Perugia	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
27.10.25	Perugia - Livorno	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Pineto - Perugia	3:0 ✺
11.10.25	Perugia - Rimini	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Carpi - Perugia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Perugia - Pontedera	1:0 penalties
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Perugia - Pontedera	3:0
15.12.24	Pontedera - Perugia	2:1
27.01.24	Pontedera - Perugia	2:3
19.09.23	Perugia - Pontedera	1:1
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
13.04.14	Perugia - Pontedera	1:0
08.12.13	Pontedera - Perugia	0:1

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